Mesoscale Discussion 1393

Issued

Jul 29, 2021, 5:51 PM CDT (22:51 UTC)

Expired

Jul 29, 2021, 7:15 PM CDT

In force

84 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

40%

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

443 
ACUS11 KWNS 292252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292251 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Areas affected...Northern Missouri...Southeast Nebraska...Northeast
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 292251Z - 300015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across
northern Missouri into extreme southeast Nebraska this evening.
Gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted with the more
aggressive storms.

DISCUSSION...Center of upper anticyclone remains positioned over KS
early this evening. Seasonally warm mid-level temperatures and weak
northwesterly flow extend just north of this dominant feature across
NE into northern MO where 500mb temperatures are around -4C with
20-25kt of flow. Surface front is sagging south along the IA/MO
border, extending into extreme southeast NE. This portion of the
front is penetrating a boundary layer that has warmed into the mid
90s with modest low-level lapse rates. Latest visible satellite
imagery suggests a healthy cu field along the frontal zone with
several robust updrafts now cycling over southern Mercer/northern
Grundy into the Sullivan County region in northern MO. It appears
this activity may continue to grow upscale as the front settles into
this region over the next few hours. There is some concern for gusty
winds and marginally severe hail with this activity but relatively
warm mid levels in proximity to the anticyclone are somewhat
inhibiting. Will continue to monitor for possible watch.

..Darrow/Goss.. 07/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40119683 40669545 40589356 40059170 39399145 39499249
            39839411 39869540 39789635 40119683

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.