Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1377

July 28, 202114 counties in North Carolina; 9 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 28, 2021, 6:07 PM EDT for 14 counties in North Carolina; 9 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 28, 2021, 6:07 PM EDT (22:07 UTC)
Expired
Jul 28, 2021, 7:30 PM EDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 23 counties

Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Hoke County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Pender County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Union County, NC, Chesterfield County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2021-07-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2446 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2021-07-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 61 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2446 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
613 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
44 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

179 
ACUS11 KWNS 282207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282207 
NCZ000-SCZ000-282330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Areas affected...Southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 282207Z - 282330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and large hail threat will
continue south of watch 398. No additional watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...Several strong to severe storms have developed south of
watch 398. MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg and effective shear
around 30 knots will continue to support some storm organization and
an isolated severe threat. However, a cooling boundary layer through
the evening and weaker mid-level flow with southern extent should
result in a less supportive severe weather environment through the
evening. Therefore, while some isolated severe weather is possible,
the limited duration of the threat precludes the need for an
additional watch.

..Bentley/Goss.. 07/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35277914 35097807 34487721 34157776 33767795 33797844
            33617885 33407904 33317916 33647977 34118021 34558048
            34978056 35038056 35277914

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 28, 12:36 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Camden, Chowan, Craven and 28 more114 min
Jul 28, 2:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 29 more6 hr
Jul 28, 4:16 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Craven, Cumberland and 23 more119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.