Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1346
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 25, 2021, 4:57 PM CDT for 7 counties in Oklahoma; 19 counties in Texas. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 25, 2021, 4:57 PM CDT (21:57 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 25, 2021, 6:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 26 counties
Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 769 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -114 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1898 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 3 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -59 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 21 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
401
ACUS11 KWNS 252158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252157
OKZ000-TXZ000-252330-
Mesoscale Discussion 1346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021
Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...far western
Oklahoma...and extreme northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252157Z - 252330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue across the area this
afternoon. Extreme instability will support brief potential for
severe hail and wind with the strongest thunderstorm updrafts. Weak
shear should limit the overall severe threat. A watch is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop within a
band of low-level convergence associated with the lee trough.
Extreme instability, most-unstable CAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg, may
support brief, isolated large hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows
with the strongest updraft pulses. However, weak effective-layer
shear -- between 10-15 knots -- will limit overall thunderstorm
organization to storm-scale processes. Thunderstorm intensity should
wane later this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. The
overall disorganized nature of the threat should preclude the need
of a watch.
..Marsh/Grams.. 07/25/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36800127 36950094 36959975 36709946 35609948 34659950
34109971 33510045 33850150 34990158 36190138 36800127Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.