Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1332

July 23, 20218 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 23, 2021, 3:32 PM MDT for 8 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2021, 3:32 PM MDT (21:32 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2021, 5:00 PM MDT
In force: 88 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Bernalillo County, NM, Catron County, NM, Cibola County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Sierra County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Valencia County, NM

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 545 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -159 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1210 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

780 
ACUS11 KWNS 232133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232132 COR
NMZ000-232300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Areas affected...portions of central and southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 232132Z - 232300Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to persist
through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong cells have developed in central New Mexico this
afternoon with one report of 1.75 inch hail thus far. Additional
severe storms have developed with a 2.5 inch MESH core across
southern Torrance County as of 2120Z. Expect additional development
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening as the
airmass across western New Mexico has warmed into the low 90s ahead
of the westward-drifting upper low. Expect storms to be mostly
strong to isolated severe. However, if the activity currently in
central New Mexico congeals as it drifts southwestward there could
be a greater potential for more organized severe storms with a
damaging-wind threat. Effective shear of 30 to 35 knots per SPC
mesoanalysis would support the potential for some organization. If
this occurs a severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered.

..Bentley/Edwards.. 07/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   35480685 35230587 34750547 34320530 33470540 32790579
            32390652 32330762 32530791 33010828 33860862 35350872
            35480685

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.