Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1317
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 19, 2021, 12:21 PM CDT for 4 counties in Minnesota; 7 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 19, 2021, 12:21 PM CDT (17:21 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 19, 2021, 1:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Norman County, MN, Polk County, MN, Cass County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 15 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 276 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1332 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -233 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1421 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -9 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 49 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
787
ACUS11 KWNS 191721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191721
MNZ000-NDZ000-191845-
Mesoscale Discussion 1317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021
Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...Northwestern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191721Z - 191845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging wind gust threat will increase this afternoon in
parts of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. The
localized threat is not expected to require a WW.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms in northeastern North
Dakota has shown a modest increase in intensity over the last hour.
Recent KMVX radar imagery has also shown stronger winds developing
aloft as well. As temperatures continue to warm through the 80s to
near 90 F this afternoon, the moist airmass ahead of the cluster
will continue to destabilize. Forecast soundings indicate 1500-2000
is probable by mid/late afternoon. The initial threat for damaging
winds with this cluster may remain low, but should increase some
this afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen ahead of it. Drier
air in central Minnesota and influence from convection in northern
Minnesota will likely limit the eastward and southward extent of
severe potential this afternoon. At this time, the threat is
expected to remain localized and a WW is not anticipated.
..Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
LAT...LON 47829857 48249843 48419760 48089652 47599592 46999570
46629586 46589667 46629721 46979795 47829857Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.