Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 130
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 25, 2021, 11:25 PM CST for 4 counties in Arkansas; 19 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 25, 2021, 11:25 PM CST (05:25 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 26, 2021, 1:30 AM CST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 23 counties
Columbia County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Miller County, AR, Union County, AR, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Collin County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Erath County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Morris County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Titus County, TX
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 889 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 70 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 264 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 476 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.5
The text
As transmitted.
288
ACUS11 KWNS 260525
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260525
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260730-
Mesoscale Discussion 0130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021
Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Arkansas...Northern
Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260525Z - 260730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail threat continues with convection.
Severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted at this time.
DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is approaching the
southern High Plains late this evening. This feature should eject
into eastern OK/Northeast TX by sunrise. Latest radar trends suggest
the leading edge of this short wave is becoming increasingly
influential in convection/intensity along a corridor from west of
SEP-DFW-PRX-TXK-north of ELD. Latest forecast soundings suggest this
elevated convection is likely rooted between 750-800mb, with
cloud-layer lapse rates on the order of 7 C/km. While MUCAPE is not
particularly noteworthy, steep lapse rates within the cool mid
levels will likely contribute to some threat for hail, especially
where more discrete structures are maintained. Latest thinking is a
considerable amount of convection will likely continue along the
aforementioned corridor for the next several hours with a slow
east-southeast movement to this evolving complex. While shear
remains strong, severe hail should remain marginal in size and
likely rather isolated in coverage. For these reasons, a watch does
not appear warranted.
..Darrow/Grams.. 02/26/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 32509865 33139735 33509594 33679446 33659335 33479240
33019258 33079408 32899572 32539689 31999810 32509865SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 6:50 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Union | 115 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.