Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1295
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 15, 2021, 2:09 PM MDT for 8 counties in Colorado; Banner County, Kimball County, Nebraska; Goshen County, Laramie County, Platte County, Wyoming. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 15, 2021, 2:09 PM MDT (20:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2021, 4:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Banner County, NE, Kimball County, NE, Goshen County, WY, Laramie County, WY, Platte County, WY
The radar
The Denver radar (KFTG), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 6 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -427 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1726 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 23 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 45 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
775
ACUS11 KWNS 152009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152009
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-152245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021
Areas affected...Southeast WY...Southwest NE Panhandle...Eastern CO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 152009Z - 152245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible this afternoon and
evening, with a threat of isolated severe hail and wind.
DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed near Limon,
Colorado, with other convection increasing to the northwest across
the higher terrain of southeast WY. While storm coverage will likely
remain isolated due to weak large-scale ascent, weak-to-moderate
instability and low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest
northwesterly flow aloft will support the potential for organized
storms. A supercell or two may eventually develop and track
southeastward, posing a localized risk of hail and severe gusts. The
severe risk is expected to be diurnally driven and peak during the
late afternoon/early evening before nocturnal stabilization reduces
the threat with time tonight.
..Dean/Bunting.. 07/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 38490267 38040395 38790430 39980476 40920520 41310548
42150579 42420514 42110412 41910396 41060325 39990294
38980271 38490267Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.