Alert archive / Utah / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1285

July 14, 2021White Pine County, Nevada; 6 counties in Utah

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 14, 2021, 1:35 PM PDT for White Pine County, Nevada; 6 counties in Utah. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2021, 1:35 PM PDT (20:35 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2021, 3:00 PM PDT
In force: 85 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 5%

Counties White Pine County, NV, Beaver County, UT, Garfield County, UT, Iron County, UT, Kane County, UT, Millard County, UT, Piute County, UT

The radar

The Cedar City radar (KICX), 174 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Elko, NV (KLKN), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 247 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 21 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -434 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2429 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

525 
ACUS11 KWNS 142036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142035 
UTZ000-NVZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Areas affected...East-Central Nevada into Southwest Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142035Z - 142200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered storms may pose a threat for gusty
outflow winds and severe hail. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating over the region has led to the
development of widely scattered convection over high
terrain/terrain-favored areas. This convective development is
occurring within an environment characterized by weak instability
(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and weak deep-layer shear. That said, strong
low- and mid-level lapse rates favoring inverted-v forecast
soundings should support a marginal severe threat, with gusty
outflow winds and severe hail possible in the strongest cells this
afternoon. With time, cold pools may merge and lead to a small
cluster or two of storms that could prolong the severe wind
potential into the evening hours. The overall threat is expected to
remain mostly isolated though, thus a watch is not anticipated at
this time.

..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON   38191554 38011625 38861676 39501635 40321516 40611427
            40031325 38571184 37761124 37231170 37371298 38171447
            38291519 38191554

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Utah, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Nevada, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.