Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1266
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 12, 2021, 1:13 PM CDT for 39 counties in Illinois; 66 counties in Indiana; 29 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 12, 2021, 1:13 PM CDT (18:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 12, 2021, 2:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 134 counties
Champaign County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Ford County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marion County, IL, Massac County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Perry County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saline County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Union County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Bartholomew County, IN, Benton County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clark County, IN, Clay County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Grant County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Jay County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Martin County, IN, Miami County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Newton County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Warren County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, White County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Graves County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY
The radar
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 653 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -21 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 548 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 80 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 102 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
891
ACUS11 KWNS 121813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121813
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-121945-
Mesoscale Discussion 1266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021
Areas affected...Western Kentucky...Southeastern Illinois...and
Central/Southern Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121813Z - 121945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts may occur with the strongest storms.
Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.
DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed into the low 80s F
amid a weak cap within a region of mid-level clearing evident in
visible satellite imagery likely in association with a mid-level
short-wave trough. With surface dew point temperatures in the low
70s F, the atmosphere has destabilized sufficiently (MLCAPE near
1000 J/kg) to promote widespread convective development and
scattered thunderstorms. This trend is expected to continue through
mid afternoon as further surface heating/isolation occurs, leading
to at least marginally supportive low-level lapse rates. Weak
deep-layer shear across the region should limit storm organization,
however, a few damaging wind gusts may occur with the strongest
storms. Given the the expectation for a somewhat isolated and
transient nature of the threat, watch issuance is not expected.
..Karstens/Dial.. 07/12/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 37028645 36578885 37918948 39458922 40678858 41198664
40508497 38498528 37028645Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.