Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1248
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2021, 7:39 PM CDT for 5 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2021, 7:39 PM CDT (00:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2021, 8:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 366
Counties Douglas County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Clay County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1434 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1268 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 2 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.3
The text
As transmitted.
160
ACUS11 KWNS 110040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110039
MOZ000-KSZ000-110145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Areas affected...Parts of northeast Kansas and west-central Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366...
Valid 110039Z - 110145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for strong/severe wind gusts is becoming more
localized in WW 366. Greatest potential exists along southwest flank
of convection now near Lawrence, KS.
DISCUSSION...The line of storms moving along the Missouri River has
become somewhat less organized over the past 90 minutes. Convection
forming ahead of the line has generally remained weak and has left
outflow from roughly near Lawrence, KS into the eastern Kansas City
Metro area. This outflow along with a greater influence of
convection farther to the south is expected to limit the overall
intensity of storms as the evening progresses. Storms on the
southwestern flank of of the activity have the greatest potential
for strong/severe wind gusts, with Lawrence, KS gusting to 60 kts
recently. However, KEAX radar imagery shows outflow quickly moving
ahead of these storms making the threat potentially short-lived.
..Wendt.. 07/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39019561 39309484 39609425 39849367 39719322 39409287
39159294 38839371 38609466 38519510 38569526 39019561Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.