Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1241
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2021, 3:05 PM CDT for 48 counties in Kentucky; 6 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 115 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2021, 3:05 PM CDT (20:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 115 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 54 counties
Adair County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bell County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Estill County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Green County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Hart County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Larue County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Marion County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Russell County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Buchanan County, VA, City of Norton, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Russell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA
The radar
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 233 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1536 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -28 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 721 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 10 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 93 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
602
ACUS11 KWNS 102005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102005
VAZ000-KYZ000-102200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Areas affected...central and eastern Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102005Z - 102200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed in an increasingly unstable
environment. Marginally severe hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows
will be possible. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have developed within a
strongly unstable environment with most-unstable CAPE values between
1500-2000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is fairly week across the region,
mostly at or below 30 knots, and mid-level lapse rates are generally
less than 6 C/km. The result of which should act to limit widespread
wind or hail potential, especially in the absence of strong forcing
for ascent. However, given the very moist conditions and strong
instability, a isolated threat for marginally severe hail and a wet
microburst exists. A watch is not currently expected.
..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/10/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...
LAT...LON 36788661 37288675 37778553 38078369 37798251 37338202
36748188 36728390 36788661SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 1:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Carlisle, Crittenden, Graves, Henderson and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 10, 5:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Henderson, Union | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.