Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 119

February 18, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 18, 2021, 10:23 AM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 18, 2021, 10:23 AM EST (15:23 UTC)
Expired
Feb 18, 2021, 1:30 PM EST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Freezing rain
All 96 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Alamance County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Vance County, NC, Warren County, NC, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Richmond, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-02-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-02-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 77 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
604 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
86 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
77 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
421 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

396 
ACUS11 KWNS 181523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181523 
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-181830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

Areas affected...portions of the mid-Atlantic into central Virginia
and northern North Carolina

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 181523Z - 181830Z

SUMMARY...Sleet and freezing rain continues from the mid-Atlantic
southward into northern North Carolina. The precipitation will
gradually come to an end from west to east through the morning and
early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Persistent cold air damming in the lee of the
Appalachians has maintained upper 20s to low 30s temperatures as far
south as northern North Carolina. Surface observations in this area
have shown ice accretion as high as 0.1" per hour recently. The
greatest freezing rain accumulation has been across central and
southern Virginia where temperatures remain in the upper 20s to low
30s and precipitation is mostly falling as freezing rain. Farther
north, temperatures are cold enough at the top of the boundary layer
(as seen on IAD 12Z RAOB) to support mostly sleet. Isentropic ascent
will shift northeastward by early afternoon which should bring an
end to precipitation across much of this region by 19-20Z.

..Bentley.. 02/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   35458016 35658059 36308008 37187919 37817878 38017871
            38937784 39717695 39717582 39607502 39337447 39197442
            38887455 38787508 38787552 38507580 38277584 37717674
            37347691 36487713 36127789 36017852 35757924 35497976
            35458016

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 18, 4:28 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharles6 hr
Feb 18, 9:47 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBergen, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson and 11 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.