Mesoscale Discussion 1097

Issued

Jun 25, 2021, 5:48 PM EDT (21:48 UTC)

Expired

Jun 25, 2021, 7:15 PM EDT

In force

87 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

40%

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

309 
ACUS11 KWNS 252148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252148 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-252315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Areas affected...southeast Michigan and western Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 252148Z - 252315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this evening. The potential for
a couple of tornadoes and gusty thunderstom winds will exist with
the strongest thunderstorms. A watch is currently may become
necessary as coverage and intensity of thunderstorms increases. The
area will continued to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A remnant MCV across central Michigan should continue
to weaken this evening as it moves northeast into Canada overnight.
Before this occurs, thunderstorms are expected to evolve out of the
precipitation shield across southern Michigan and northwest Ohio.
This will occur as an increase in low-level theta-e results in an
increase in most-unstable CAPE values potentially up to 1000 J/kg.
Lower tropospheric flow across the area has responded to the MCV,
resulting in south to southeast surface winds across the region
beneath modest westerly flow in the mid-levels. The result is
deep-layer shear around 40-knots. The combination of increasing
instability and deep-layer shear will pose at least the potential
for organized severe threat this evening. Given veering-with-height
wind profiles in the low-levels and a very moist thermodynamic
profile, a couple of tornadoes and the potential for wet microbursts
would be possible with the strongest, most organized thunderstorms.
Weak lapse-rates throughout the troposphere will limit the hail
threat. 

At present the relatively small spatiotemporal nature of the severe
threat should preclude the need for a watch. However, trends will be
monitored closely and a watch may be needed if confidence in
coverage and intensity of thunderstorm development increases.

..Marsh/Grams.. 06/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41318499 42078489 42858388 42958298 42658248 41898228
            40948229 40178291 40248390 40688469 41318499

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.