Mesoscale Discussion 1068

Issued

Jun 23, 2021, 5:16 PM CDT (22:16 UTC)

Expired

Jun 23, 2021, 6:45 PM CDT

In force

89 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

40%

Counties Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Grand Forks County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

707 
ACUS11 KWNS 232216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232216 
MNZ000-NDZ000-232345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

Areas affected...Northeast North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 232216Z - 232345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the cold front may pose a
risk for isolated damaging winds early this evening. A greater
threat may evolve with additional storm development near sunset. A
watch is possible, but uncertainty remains high on the magnitude of
the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite and radar imagery showed
thunderstorm development was increasing in vigor across portions of
North Dakota and Minnesota. These storms have developed along and
ahead of a cold front analyzed from southern Manitoba, through
northeast North Dakota, and northwest Minnesota. Weak buoyancy has
developed along the front with around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE observed
from SPC mesoanalysis. 35-45 kts of 0-6km shear, sampled from
regional VWPs, will support an organized severe risk in the form of
supercells and short line segments. As the front surges southward,
thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts given steep
low-level lapse rates.

To the east across north-central Minnesota, a more stable airmass is
in place where deeper mixing has lowered surface dewpoints into the
upper 40s and low 50s F. Uncertainty on the magnitude of the severe
threat remains high as storms will likely weaken as they encounter
lower buoyancy in this region. Some destabilization is possible
later this evening as deeper surface moisture with dewpoints in the
low 60s F is advected into the area ahead of the low-level jet. With
the resurgence of low-level moisture, some CAM guidance suggests
additional storms may form and grow upscale with the potential for
damaging wind gusts into the overnight hours. With this uncertainty
in mind, convective trends are being monitored for a possible
weather watch.

..Lyons/Grams.. 06/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   49029510 48619469 48159436 47799436 47249483 46879574
            46769665 47059709 47249754 47619803 48569728 48979664
            49059643 49029510

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.