Mesoscale Discussion 1064

Issued

Jun 22, 2021, 2:37 PM PDT (21:37 UTC)

Expired

Jun 22, 2021, 4:30 PM PDT

In force

113 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Harney County, OR, Malheur County, OR

The Boise radar (KCBX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

648 
ACUS11 KWNS 222138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222137 
NVZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-222330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Areas affected...Far northwest Nevada into southeast Oregon

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222137Z - 222330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind and hail
threat late this afternoon and into the evening hours. The threat
will remain isolated enough to preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...GLM data has shown several scattered lightning strikes
across east/southeast OR over the past hour associated with
weak/transient convection. More recently, a slight uptick in
lightning activity and deeper convective towers within a band of
agitated cumulus located along a trough axis are noted from
northwest NV into far southeast OR. Recent mesoanalysis estimates
show upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE over the region as well as
40-50 knots of effective bulk shear. This environment is supportive
of storm organization if a cell can be sustained and gradually
mature. In general, coverage of any strong to severe storms is
expected to be limited given the weak forcing for ascent, and
convection should lose intensity later this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. As such, a watch is not expected.

..Moore/Grams.. 06/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...

LAT...LON   41351849 41631941 42551993 43541956 44261884 44401820
            44461763 44091699 43321679 42431685 41931693 41631724
            41351849

Mesoscale Discussions in Oregon, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.