Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1062

June 22, 2021Las Animas County, Colorado; 5 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 22, 2021, 1:40 PM MDT for Las Animas County, Colorado; 5 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 22, 2021, 1:40 PM MDT (19:40 UTC)
Expired
Jun 22, 2021, 3:45 PM MDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Las Animas County, CO, Colfax County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 281 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-06-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-06-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 5 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1455 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

076 
ACUS11 KWNS 221940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221940 
COZ000-NMZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Areas affected...Northeast NM...Southeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221940Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts are possible for the remainder
of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deep cumulus along and
in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains in northeast NM and far
southeast CO. Overall buoyancy is low, with this deepening cumulus
primarily a result of orographic effects and modest mid-level
moisture beneath the upper ridge. The best moisture advection will
be displaced east of the region, but some additional air mass
destabilization is possible as a result of strong diurnal heating
and resulting deep boundary-layer mixing. This destabilization may
allow updrafts to persist off the higher terrain for a bit longer
from now through the remainder of the afternoon. Once these storms
do decay, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and the resulting negative
buoyancy could produce a few strong gusts at the surface, much like
what recently occurred at KLVS, producing a 61 kt gust.

..Mosier/Hart.. 06/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36910517 37590479 37910439 37990404 37830361 37660338
            37410325 37180319 37010318 36360340 35680376 35240434
            35090479 35230545 35640562 36910517

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.