Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1038

June 20, 202110 counties in Colorado

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2021, 5:26 PM MDT for 10 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 20, 2021, 5:26 PM MDT (23:26 UTC)
Expired: Jun 20, 2021, 6:30 PM MDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3416 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 153 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 179 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

299 
ACUS11 KWNS 202327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202326 
COZ000-210030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 202326Z - 210030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated convection is forecast to increase across the
Front Range this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe storms may
evolve with a risk for damaging winds or hail through this evening.
Coverage should remain sparse limiting the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from KPUX and KFTG showed several
clusters of weak updrafts have become gradually deeper over the last
half hour. New storm development over El Paso County Colorado could
be an early signal for similar storm initiation along the Front
Range late this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE has developed in response to weak upslope flow and
dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F. Deep-layer shear is
adequate for updraft organization in the form of multi-cell clusters
and perhaps a weak supercell. Model soundings do suggest the ongoing
convection may be rooted above the surface, which casts doubt on
severe potential early. However, if storms are able to survive,
damaging winds and hail may develop given the degree of buoyancy and
organization potential. The severe weather threat remains
conditional and somewhat uncertain, but some potential does exist. A
watch is unlikely for now given the uncertainty and expected limited
storm coverage.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/20/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37220429 37440437 38200472 38730472 39110446 39120377
            38670277 38160244 37590220 37160226 37080240 37060348
            37060395 37220429

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.