Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 100
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2021, 12:11 AM EST for 5 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 64 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 16, 2021, 12:11 AM EST (05:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 16, 2021, 1:15 AM EST
- In force
- 64 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Carteret County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 29 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 456 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 62 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 241 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 300 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
145
ACUS11 KWNS 160512
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160511
NCZ000-160615-
Mesoscale Discussion 0100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021
Areas affected...North Carolina coastal areas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 160511Z - 160615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated supercells with the potential to produce
tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts could increase further as a
line of thunderstorms rapidly spreads into the Outer and Inner Banks
area of North Carolina through 1-3 AM EST.
DISCUSSION...Embedded within 50-60 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean
ambient flow, a broken line of thunderstorms continues to rapidly
move northeastward into/through the southern Mid Atlantic coast
region. Near the intersection of this line and a surface warm
frontal zone, one embedded cell recently intensified rapidly,
including the development of a strong low-level mesocyclone.
However, this is occurring to the cool side of the front, and
appears rooted above a sharp, albeit shallow, surface-based stable
layer.
Based in surface analysis the past few hours, there has been at
least some inland advancement of the frontal zone, and weak
boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible into coastal
areas northeast of Morehead City, ahead of the line during the next
few hours. As this occurs, probabilities for a couple of tornadoes
and/or damaging wind gusts would seem likely to increase, in the
presence of large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 02/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
LAT...LON 34607785 35447630 35617582 35697539 35487525 34947553
34407659 33987751 34117778 34607785SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 12:41 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Duplin, Hyde and 6 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.