Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
312 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Deep moisture will remain across Utah and southwest
Wyoming through Monday. This will result in an extended period of
thunderstorm chances with a heavy rain threat, along with
temperatures trending slightly below normal. A warming and drying
trend is anticipated by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...Utah and southwest Wyoming
remain under a moist southerly flow this afternoon with high
pressure centered just to the east. PWs are in excess of 1.0"
across the majority of the area, with some values as high as 1.4"
over parts of western Utah. With daytime heating, showers and
thunderstorms have predictably developed over the higher terrain
with some storms drifting into some valleys just to the north of
the terrain. Convection will continue to develop through the
afternoon and into the early evening, with very heavy rain
possible with any storms that develop along with gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and small hail. The clouds and moisture will
also keep high temperatures at or below seasonal normals once
again.

Shortwave energy over the Great Basin is expected to lift
northward, reaching far northwest Utah Sunday afternoon before
sliding east across northern Utah through Monday. This will
provide additional instability, especially across western and
northern portions of the forecast area. This will also bring some
better shear which could lead to more organized and/or longer
lived convection. As a result, anticipating that tomorrow will be
at least a bit more active than today. However, as this wave
lifts northward, it will start to bring some drier air into
southwest Utah as early as tomorrow afternoon, so convection
should be more focused over central and northern Utah.

Drier air will continue to move in from the south on Monday as
high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Still anticipating
another good round of convection for northern and eastern portions
of the forecast area but southern and western portions of the area
should be noticeably drier and less active.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...Monsoon activity ends, but some
diurnal convection will linger over the higher terrain. Most
everyone will see a quiet and dry forecast for much of the week
and into next weekend, with warming temperatures. Slight
subtleties emerge within the long range model outputs for a weak
monsoon surge occurring across far southern Utah by next weekend.

A large amplitude ridge axis across the interior west will extend
north into northern Montana. Utah will be positioned underneath the
ridge axis with the flow shifting to a northerly flow. This pattern
will shutoff the monsoon moisture hose and we will continue to
dry out. Given the rich plumes of moisture that was pumped into
Utah from the monsoonal surges, residual moisture across the
higher terrain should be enough to kick start some diurnal
convection on Tuesday.

The drying trend will really begin to take off Wednesday as a trough
axis swings into the California coast and breaks down the ridge axis
over Utah. As this trough continues to move east strong winds
develop aloft and these winds will begin to advect very dry air
sitting across the crest of the Sierra's into Utah Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures will also respond by warming back to seasonal
normals on Wednesday, then slightly above normal temperatures can be
expected on Thursday. In this type of pattern where we have a trough
shifting the flow aloft to dry southwesterly flow that will advect a
dry airmass across Utah, we would begin to address some fire weather
concerns. With the multiple rounds of wetting rains and the moist
airmass we have had in place, current fire weather concerns are low
at this time, but will be monitored going forward. Some isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible but coverage will be sparse and
may only be confined to typical convergence zone, initiation points
i.e., Boulder Mountain and the Uinta's on Thursday and Friday.

Heading into Day 7 (Next Saturday), some subtle hints at for a
return of a weak monsoon begin to emerge in some of the long range
model outputs for areas across far southern Utah and the southern
Utah mountains. Low end PoPS were added to account for this, but
overall confidence is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over the terrain to
the east and southwest of the terminal around 20z. Confidence is
low of these impacting the terminal, but TEMPO groups may be added
if confidence increases. Best window for thunderstorm activity
will be from 20z- 03z. There is a 60% chance for gusty and erratic
winds to impact the terminal from nearby thunderstorm outflows.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will keep the winds out of the
west-northwest through 03z, then switch to a prevailing southerly
flow through the morning.

Rest of Utah and southwest Wyoming...Widespread VFR conditions will
prevail across the airspace. Showers and thunderstorms have
developed across northern and southern Utah this afternoon. The
window for thunderstorms will be from 21-03z. Erratic outflow winds
are the primary aviation concern, followed by the potential for
brief locally heavy rain should a storm impact a terminal directly.
Due to the heavy rain, storms will be capable of MVFR/IFR
visibilities and may obscure terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture remains in place across the
region, which will allow for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through Monday, primarily during the afternoon and
early evening. Convection through tonight will be primarily
focused over the higher terrain with some drift into the valleys
during the late afternoon into the early evening. Sunday looks to
be more active, however, as a weak weather disturbance brushes by
the area. With abundant moisture in place any storms that form
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Temperatures will
continue to run a bit below normal, and relative humidity values
will remain elevated with good to excellent overnight recovery. As
this weather system passes moves east of the area, drier air will
spread across the region beginning Tuesday, remaining in place
for the middle to latter part of the upcoming week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Woodward

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
541 AM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

UTZ101>131-WYZ021-011200-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-Tooele and Rush Valleys-
Eastern Box Elder County-Northern Wasatch Front-Salt Lake Valley-
Utah Valley-Cache Valley/Utah Portion-Wasatch Back-
Bear Lake and Bear River Valley-Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-
Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-Western Uinta Mountains-
Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs-Western Uinta Basin-
Western Millard and Juab Counties-Eastern Juab/Millard Counties-
Central Mountains-Sanpete Valley-Sevier Valley-Castle Country-
San Rafael Swell-Southwest Utah-Lower Washington County-
Zion National Park-Southern Mountains-Upper Sevier River Valleys-
Bryce Canyon Country-South Central Utah-
Capitol Reef National Park and Vicinity-Western Canyonlands-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-Southwest Wyoming-
541 AM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western two thirds of
Utah and southwest Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain and
gusty winds are expected this afternoon and evening. There is a
potential for localized flash flooding, especially in south
wester Utah and in prone areas such as slot canyons, burn scars,
areas of steep terrain, and normally dry washes and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The moist airmass will remain in place through Monday. Daily
showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rain and gusty winds
will occur each afternoon and evening across much of the forecast
area. Drier air will move into the area beginning Tuesday, and
remain in place through the remainder of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential road travel impacts visit...
http://www.udottraffic.utah.gov/roadweatherforecast.aspx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
751 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

UTZ101-102-010230-
Tooele and Rush Valleys UT-Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
751 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TOOELE COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM MDT...

At 750 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Tooele Army Depot South, or 17 miles east of
Dugway English Village...moving north at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dugway English Village, Skull Valley, Clive, Tooele Army Depot,
Dugway Proving Ground Test Range, Utah Test and Training Range South,
Stockton and Rush Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

Strong winds with these showers and thunderstorms may occur well
ahead of any rain. Do not wait for rain or the sound of thunder
before taking cover. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 11266 4033 11340 4075 11305 4044 11231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 168DEG 8KT 4023 11242

ND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
757 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST SPRINGDALE              37.20N 112.98W
07/31/2021  M44 MPH          WASHINGTON         UT   MESONET

            ZION CANYON - 3999 FT

0650 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.05N 113.21W
07/31/2021  M43 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            CALLAO GATE - 4250 FT

0650 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.23N 112.73W
07/31/2021  M41 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            ENGLISH VILLAGE - 4788 FT

0655 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  39.92N 112.94W
07/31/2021  M43 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            SIMPSON SPRINGS - 4645 FT

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PROVIDENCE              41.71N 111.71W
07/31/2021  M41 MPH          CACHE              UT   MESONET

            LOGAN PEAK - 8960 FT

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST VERNON                  40.13N 112.38W
07/31/2021  M44 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            VERNON HILL - 5761 FT

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BRIGHAM CITY            41.58N 112.07W
07/31/2021  M46 MPH          BOX ELDER          UT   MESONET

            I-15 AT MP 369 N BRIGHAM CITY - 4241 FT

0705 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.11N 112.81W
07/31/2021  M44 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            DURAND ROAD - 4538 FT

0710 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CALLAO                  40.11N 113.31W
07/31/2021  M40 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            WEST GRANITE - 4403 FT

0710 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.37N 113.00W
07/31/2021  M53 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            UPPER CEDAR MTN - 7052 FT

0715 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.16N 112.89W
07/31/2021  M53 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            WHITE SAGE - 4363 FT

0720 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.12N 112.95W
07/31/2021  M50 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            CAMEL BACK MTN - 5077 FT

0720 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PERRY                   41.44N 112.06W
07/31/2021  M41 MPH          BOX ELDER          UT   MESONET

            I-15 AT WILLARD POE - 4220 FT

0720 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.18N 112.92W
07/31/2021  M41 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            DITTO - 4345 FT

0724 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.16N 112.89W
07/31/2021  M47 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            DUGWAY-S - 4385 FT

0724 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.39N 113.03W
07/31/2021  M49 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            DUGWAY-N - 5194 FT

0725 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.18N 113.02W
07/31/2021  M49 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            BAKER LAB - 4294 FT

0740 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CLIVE                   40.34N 113.24W
07/31/2021  M48 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            SALT FLATS - 4265 FT

0740 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST FAIRVIEW                39.62N 111.31W
07/31/2021  M48 MPH          SANPETE            UT   MESONET

            PORTABLE RWIS 4 - 9805 FT

0750 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST FARMINGTON              40.99N 111.90W
07/31/2021  M41 MPH          DAVIS              UT   MESONET

            US-89 AT PARK LANE - 4288 FT

0755 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY                  40.30N 112.78W
07/31/2021  M42 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            CEDAR MOUNTAIN - 4650 FT

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
803 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

UTZ101-102-010230-
Tooele and Rush Valleys UT-Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
803 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SALT LAKE AND EAST
CENTRAL TOOELE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

At 803 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Tooele Army Depot, or near Tooele...moving
north at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tooele, Grantsville, Stansbury Park, Tooele Army Depot, Erda and Lake
Point.

This includes Interstate 80 in Utah between mile markers 85 and 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 11230 4057 11262 4075 11248 4061 11215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 168DEG 8KT 4055 11238

ND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
818 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HILDALE                 37.01N 112.97W
07/31/2021                   WASHINGTON         UT   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HILDALE FIRE DISPATCH REPORTS WATER FLOWING OVER THREE
            CITY STREET CROSSINGS IN THE CITY OF HILDALE. THESE THREE
            SECTIONS OF STREETS WERE CLOSED AT THE TIME OF REPORT DUE
            TO THE FLOWS.

&&

ALEX.DESMET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
828 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

UTZ101-102-104-105-010315-
Salt Lake Valley UT-Northern Wasatch Front UT-
Tooele and Rush Valleys UT-Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
828 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SALT LAKE...SOUTH
CENTRAL DAVIS AND NORTHEASTERN TOOELE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM MDT...

At 828 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of strong thunderstorms near Skull Valley, or 12 miles
southwest of Grantsville...moving north at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tooele, Grantsville, Stansbury Park, Delle, Tooele Army Depot, Skull
Valley, Stockton, Lake Point and Erda.

This includes Interstate 80 in Utah between mile markers 63 and 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

Strong winds with these showers and thunderstorms may occur well
ahead of any rain. Do not wait for rain or the sound of thunder
before taking cover. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 11230 4047 11265 4049 11290 4090 11288
      4082 11217 4061 11215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 168DEG 8KT 4050 11267

ND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
830 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

UTZ101-010300-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
830 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BOX ELDER AND NORTH
CENTRAL TOOELE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM MDT...

At 830 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles east of Utah Test and Training Range
North, or 44 miles northwest of Grantsville...moving north at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Utah Test and Training Range North.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 11291 4096 11315 4118 11327 4124 11292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 168DEG 8KT 4106 11306

ND