Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
438 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 438 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

An eastward moving dryline stretched from near Snyder south
through just west of Sterling City and southwest through Iraan,
with visible satellite showing flat cumulus having developed along
it. Ahead of the dryline, surface based CAPE of roughly 1000-2000
J/KG existed (more instability in the eastern counties compared
to the rest of the forecast area). Meanwhile, effective shear was
pretty high east of the dry-line... around 60+ KT. RAP forecast
soundings over the next few hours in the eastern and northeastern
counties... roughly east of a Haskell to Bronte line... showed a
veering wind profile conducive to supercellular structures, and a
mid-level capping inversion breaking by around 6 pm. By that time,
surface based CAPE in those areas could exceeed 3000 J/KG.
According to the HRRR, which has been consistent from run to run
and seems to show a reasonable solution, storms are expected to
initiate from near San Angelo northeast through Haskell by 6 pm as
the cap breaks and dry-line convergence increases, with coverage
and intensity of storms increasing roughly east of a Haskell to
Bronte line, where large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two
will be possible through around 8 or 9 pm before storms move
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Early this afternoon, a strong shortwave was progressing rapidly
across New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle.  A surface low has
developed around Lubbock and will continue northeastward.  A cold
front was also making it's way southward through the Panhandle,
while a dryline over the South Plains and Permian Basin will
continue mixing eastward through west central Texas this evening.

As the dryline mixes eastward this afternoon, much drier air will
move in behind it, which, when combined with winds gusting over 30
mph, may lead to Elevated fire weather danger this afternoon. By
late this afternoon and early evening, it appears that a few
thunderstorms will initiate along the dryline over our southeast
counties. Some brief gusty winds or small hail will be possible with
this activity before it pushes southeastward into the Hill Country
overnight. For the rest of the night the cooler and drier air will
make it's presence known with lows in the low 50s expected under
clear skies.  Tomorrow, the system is expected to move out of our
area, followed by cool high pressure. This will allow for sunny
and dry conditions across the area with high temperatures only
reaching the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

An active weather pattern continues this week. A large upper low
will center itself over the 4-corners region/Central Rocky
Mountains Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing several disturbances
over West Central Texas...in southwest flow aloft. Low level
moisture returns rapidly ahead of this system, with dew points in
the 60s Tuesday, and enough instability may be available to
isolated severe storms. SPC day 3 convective outlook has a slight
risk of severe storms in the Big Country north of I-20
Tuesday/Tuesday night.

The remnants of Tropical depression Sixteen-E south of Mexico
today, may move northeast into Texas Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms, some
possibly heavy rainfall. Areas along/east of a Sonora to
Brownwood line are have be best chance of heavy rainfall...with
general amounts of 1 to 2 inches and locally heavier amounts.
There is always uncertainly 3 to 5 days out, but the models
continue to have good agreement and continuity. Temperatures later
this week will be cooler, especially by Friday, where
temperatures decrease to highs in the 70s. Lows in the 40s are
expected Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

VFR with strong southwesterly winds this afternoon, turning west
this evening. Winds should diminish overnight for most locations.
Some thunderstorms may develop near JCT and BBD this evening, then
move quickly southeastward. These may produce gusty winds, wind
shear, and large hail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 53  84  64  88 /   5   0   5  30
San Angelo 	 52  85  64  90 /   5   0   5  20
Junction 	 54  87  66  88 /  30   0   5  30
Brownwood 	 54  85  62  86 /  40   0   5  40
Sweetwater 	 52  84  64  91 /   0   0   5  20
Ozona      	 52  85  66  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Fisher-Haskell-
Jones-Nolan.

&&

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...SK
MESOSCALE UPDATE...SJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
206 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-111915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
206 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening for our far eastern counties. The main
hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Low humidity values are expected behind a dryline this afternoon
west of a line from Abilene to San Angelo to Ozona. This may
result in elevated fire danger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will be possible across much of west
central Texas Tuesday through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to
localized flooding across the southeast. In addition, a few storms
may approach severe levels across the northern Big Country on
Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed across far eastern counties this
afternoon. Please relay any information about observed weather to
the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
603 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

TXZ098-099-102345-
Haskell TX-Throckmorton TX-
603 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Haskell
and northwestern Throckmorton Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Weinert, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Weinert, Millers Creek Reservoir, Us-183 Near The Throckmorton-
Baylor County Line and Us-277 Near The Haskell-Knox County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 9965 3337 9975 3340 9969 3340 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 241DEG 47KT 3333 9962

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SJH