Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
621 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

At this hour, a line of rain and thunderstorms was located along
a cold front as it slowly moved southward. Heavy rainfall was
occurring with this activity and will continue to be the case as
it progresses southward this afternoon. The (somewhat) good news
is that this line will be much more progressive than it was over
the Big Country this morning, which means rainfall totals for
areas further south will not be as high. But, given the moist
atmosphere and plenty of dynamics, many areas could easily receive
over an inch of rainfall this afternoon and evening. In addition,
some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau this afternoon and evening.
Much of this may occur ahead of the line or embedded in the line
itself. Regardless, the main concern with this activity is locally
heavy rain. Overnight, this activity will continue southward with
the frontal boundary, and push into the Hill Country around
sunrise. Surface high pressure will start to fill in from the
north behind this front during the day tomorrow, which should keep
most rain and thunderstorm chances confined to the northwest Hill
Country and I-10 corridor late Tuesday afternoon. Even so, some
isolated showers will be possible during the day for areas further
north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

The active pattern will remain on tap for the rest of this week
and through the weekend. Several shortwave impulses will rotate
around the base of a large trough located over the Midwest, while
an upper-level low becomes pseudo-closed over Baja California by
Tuesday night. Both of these features will continue to provide
dynamics for unsettled weather across Texas. Dewpoints at the
surface will continue to be in the 60s across the area, while
PWATs will be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. In addition, the cold
front will sink further south into the Hill Country, which should
provide plenty of lift for showers and thunderstorms. As a result,
more rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely, mostly
in the afternoon and evening for areas south of I-20. Going into
Thursday and Friday, the upper-level pattern will undergo some
changes as the axis of the Midwest trough will move to the eastern
US, so Texas will lose the dynamics from this feature. However,
the pseudo-closed low should start to drift eastward and move into
Texas, where it will become an open wave. The cold front will
also lift back northward and become stationary. These features
should continue to provide ample opportunity for more rain and
thunderstorms across much of western and central Texas this
weekend, especially each afternoon. By early next week, models
hint at this open wave moving eastward and a ridge building in,
but all things are subject to change, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through
much of the evening hours. A few locations have held onto VFR cigs
so far this afternoon, but cigs should also deteriorate this
evening behind a cold front. Widespread IFR cigs expected
overnight and into Tuesday morning, with conditions gradually
improving to VFR cigs by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 64  76  60  79 /  90  20  30  40
San Angelo 	 65  78  62  82 /  80  30  50  60
Junction 	 67  81  64  80 /  60  50  60  70
Brownwood 	 66  79  62  79 /  80  30  40  50
Sweetwater 	 62  75  60  79 /  80  20  30  30
Ozona      	 65  77  63  80 /  70  30  60  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-
Taylor-Throckmorton.

&&

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
228 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-011930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
228 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Rain and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening.
This may lead to localized flooding from heavy rain. In addition,
an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce damaging
winds or large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The unsettled pattern will continue through the end of the week
with chances for rain and thunderstorms, mainly each afternoon
and evening. This will continue the threat of localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed weather to the NWS while following all
local, state and CDC guidelines.

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