Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
613 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

It wouldn't be late spring in West Central Texas if we didn't have
yet another chance for strong to severe storms tonight. Storms are
already firing across the Davis Mountains and more are expected to
fire later this afternoon off the dryline. With ample amounts of
instability (daytime heating and plenty of moisture with dew points
in the mid 60s leading to CAPE values of 2000+ J/kg) and steep mid
level lapse rates between 7-8.5 deg C/km, these storms should
intensify quickly. The only 'limiting' factors are a lack of
widespread significant lift and only modest amounts of effective bulk
shear around 30 kts. These storms are expected to grow upscale
pretty quickly into multicell complexes with embedded supercells
possible as they trek into our area and move southeast. CAMs are
suggesting the development of a complex in the northern Permian
Basin after 0Z and moving it through the Big Country and maybe the
Northern Concho Valley late this evening. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the main threats with an overall low threat for
tornadoes. Otherwise, low clouds are expected to move in from the
southeast in the late overnight to early morning hours. Lows will
be very mild in the mid to upper 60s, aided by the cloud cover
and continued southerly low-level flow.

Tomorrow looks to dry out as upper level ridging sets up over our
area. Highs will be at or just above normal for this time of year in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Dew points are expected to remain high in
the mid to upper 60s with, once again, continued low level south to
southeasterly flow bringing in rich gulf moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

Continued unsettled pattern for the rest of the week and into the
weekend, although West Central Texas will remain on periphery for
Wednesday night into Thursday night. Most of the activity
developing across West Texas and the Red River Valley will
struggle to come very far south and east, although as we saw this
morning, it will remain possible. Will generally keep POPs low for
the western third of the area, with slightly higher chances
across the northern Big Country and the extreme western Concho
Valley.

Best chances may come Friday evening into Saturday morning as a
weak cold front sags into the area. NAM is a little farther south
with the boundary by Friday afternoon, but in any case, looks like
convection will develop Friday afternoon and evening along the
boundary and sag south and east farther into the area. Details
this far out remain questionable, but decent instability in place
so will need to keep an eye on severe chances. How far south the
convection eventually sags is also a question, along with any
possible outflow boundaries or the front itself hanging around on
Saturday. Will continue the mention of chance POPs for now, but
may need to be bumped for at least the Big Country if model trends
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals this evening. Stratus will
return late tonight with MVFR ceilings at the terminals between
06-09Z and low clouds remaining through Wednesday morning. Expect
mainly VFR conditions after 18Z Wednesday. Also, watching severe
storms over the Permian Basin, moving toward the east. Going with
a VCTS at the KABI site between 02-07Z. Will keep an eye on the
KSJT site too, but keeping thunder out for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 67  88  70  89 /  30   5   5  10
San Angelo 	 68  92  69  90 /  20   0   5   5
Junction 	 68  89  66  89 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood 	 67  86  68  88 /  10   5   0   5
Sweetwater 	 66  88  70  90 /  30   5  10  10
Ozona      	 69  90  68  88 /  20   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
230 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-261930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
230 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly this afternoon
and tonight. Damaging winds, large hail, heavy downpours, and
frequent lightning are the main hazards. The primary area of
concern is west of an Abilene to San Angelo to Ozona line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong to severe storms are possible Friday and Saturday. The main
hazards currently look to be heavy rain, lightning, and damaging
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible this afternoon through the
overnight hours.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
710 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

TXZ064-260100-
Sterling TX-
710 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN STERLING COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

At 708 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
about 10 miles west of the Sterling County line, moving east at 30
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Sterling
County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3208 10082 3206 10083 3194 10126 3208 10126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 252DEG 28KT 3202 10141

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