Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
226 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

The cold front had moved south of the the southern Crockett...
Sutton...Kimble county lines at 2 PM CDT. Thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front this afternoon and evening. Some storms
could become severe. Most should stay south of the San Angelo CWA.
However, isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially if a
left hand mover moves northeast. The atmosphere was unstable to the
south. SBCAPES along the I-10 corridor were 1000 to 2500 J/KG but
increased over 3500 J/KG to the south of the cold front. Large hail
of 4 inches in diameter are possible. A severe thunderstorm watch
has been issued until 10 PM for Crockett, Schleicher, Sutton,
Kimble and Menard counties.

The rest of West Central Texas from the Big County into the Concho
Valley was under low clouds behind the cold front...and was much
more stable. However an upper shortwave will approach from the
northwest towards morning and will bring increasing lift to the
region. Thus...showers and thunderstorms will be increasing after 1
AM and especially Tuesday morning. A warm front will also be move in
during the morning hours. While shower and thunderstorms coverage
will be high Tuesday...severe storm coverage will be more
isolated. Highs will be in the 60s Tuesday in the Big Country with
70s south. Ozona and Sonora may hit 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

A cold front will slowly move through the area Tuesday evening.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible along and behind the front.
In addition, gusty northeast winds and cooler temperatures will
filter in behind the front. Expect overnight lows in the 50s. Rain
chances will continue into Wednesday. Extensive cloud cover along
with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms, will help to
keep temperatures unseasonably cool. Expect highs in the low to
mid 60s for most locations. Rain chances will quickly diminish
Wednesday evening.

Expect generally dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Highs on
Thursday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs on Friday
rebounding into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

On Saturday, models are indicating a weak upper level shortwave
trough tracking across the region, which may result in the
development of showers and thunderstorms along the dryline, to our
west. Some of this activity could move into our forecast area late in
the day, so have included slight chance PoPs Saturday afternoon and
evening.

An upper level low is forecast to be centered across across Southern
California Sunday morning. This low is then forecast to slowly track
east, across the Desert Southwest through Monday, then across the
Texas Panhandle late Monday into Tuesday. This feature has the
potential to result in increased rain chances early next week. There
continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the eventual
track and timing of this feature, so for now have kept PoPs in the
slight chance/chance category. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will
be near seasonal normals, with highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Isolated thunderstorms possible near KSOA and KJCT mid afternoon
and evening. Otherwise MVFR stratus decreases to IFR this evening
and overnight. Thunderstorms possible near KSOA and KJCT mid
afternoon into late evening. Widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be developing after midnight and continue to
increasing through daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 54  68  52  61 /  60  90  50  40
San Angelo 	 57  79  54  64 /  50  80  50  50
Junction 	 59  79  57  66 /  50  70  50  50
Brownwood 	 56  71  54  63 /  40  90  50  40
Sweetwater 	 54  68  51  60 /  60  80  50  50
Ozona      	 60  82  57  66 /  50  70  50  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
243 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-111945-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
243 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening generally south of an Ozona...Eldorado to Menard to
Mason line. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The main threat will be large hail and damaging
winds. Widespread showers and thunderstorms could also produce
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed weather to the NWS while following all
local, state and CDC guidelines.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HAIL             8 SE MELVIN             31.11N 99.48W
05/10/2021  E1.75 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC

            UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
629 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     HAIL             1 NNW BRADY             31.15N 99.34W
05/10/2021  E1.75 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL JUST NORTH OF BRADY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             BRADY                   31.13N 99.34W
05/10/2021  E1.25 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BRADY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
639 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             1 NNW MELVIN            31.22N 99.59W
05/10/2021  E1.75 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NOTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA
            FROM MELVIN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
639 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

TXZ140-110030-
Brown TX-
639 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

At 639 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brookesmith, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brownwood and Camp Bowie around 655 PM CDT.
  Early and Zephyr around 710 PM CDT.
  Blanket around 720 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Indian Creek and
Owens.

LAT...LON 3170 9867 3169 9875 3162 9878 3149 9903
      3153 9915 3158 9919 3198 9886
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 226DEG 31KT 3156 9907