Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
540 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

Cold front has sagged into the Big Country and northern Permian
Basin late this afternoon, with satellite showing a little
agitated Cu development from Snyder and Big Spring west into New
Mexico just north of the front. High-res models continue to
produce convection along this boundary across the northern
Permian basin late this afternoon, tracking into the Big Country
this evening. The HRRR has consistently shown a possible supercell
moving across Haskell and Throckmorton after 00Z. Have added POPs
across all of the Big Country this evening, boosted POPs slightly
across Haskell and Throckmorton and added a mention of severe.
Speaking of severe, main threat tonight for the Big Country looks
to be very large hail.

Farther southeast, the front is very near Brownwood and the
dryline is near San Saba, but both of those locations remain in
the moist air mass. Models have shown almost all of the convection
developing just east of their locations this evening as well,
pushing quickly northeast. Still will need to monitor though in
case the cap breaks quicker and storms can develop a little faster
than anticipated.

Decently colder air mass behind the front, with temperatures in
the 70s this afternoon. This air mass will settle south overnight
and help make for a cooler day tomorrow, aided by some low
cloudiness for at least the morning hours. Highs on Tuesday will
mainly stay in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

A cool morning is forecast across West Central Texas on Wednesday.
Expect low temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. High
temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A weak cold front
is forecast to move through the area Thursday, keeping temperatures
close to seasonal normals. Highs on Thursday and Friday will
generally be in the 80s. Models are indicating the development of
showers and thunderstorms Friday evening to our west, as an upper
level disturbance tracks across the region. Although an isolated
storm could approach Crockett County, most of this activity should
remain to our west.

Zonal flow is forecast to develop this weekend, with the dryline
advancing well into West Central Texas both Saturday and Sunday
afternoon. This will allow for hot and dry conditions this
weekend, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s. The next cold
front will move across the region on Monday. Temperatures for the
start of next week will be slightly cooler, with highs generally
in the 80s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along the front Monday, mainly across our southeast counties. For
now, have kept PoPs in the slight chance category, given the
uncertainty this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

Hi Res models are indicating isolated to widely scattered storms
moving east across the Big Country through 06Z. Looks like this
activity will remain north of the KABI terminal, but will watch
radar trends for possible amendments this evening. Otherwise, cold
front will move to the south of the area by 07Z. The winds will be
from the north with gusts to 25 knots behind the front. Also, MVFR
ceilings will develop at the terminals, by 05Z at the KABI site to
12-13Z at the KSOA/KJCT sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 56  71  47  77 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo 	 57  77  49  83 /   5   0   0   0
Junction 	 57  79  49  82 /   5   0   0   0
Brownwood 	 57  72  47  76 /   5   5   0   0
Sweetwater 	 55  71  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona      	 57  79  51  83 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
233 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-041945-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
233 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening across he
Big Country, mainly north of a Sweetwater to Abilene line. The
highest threat will be across Haskell and Throckmorton counties.
Any storm that does develop will have the potential to reach
severe levels, with very large hail larger than golf balls the
main concern. Damaging winds and dangerous lightning will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested this evening across the Big
Country.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
837 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             ROTAN                   32.85N 100.47W
05/03/2021  E2.75 INCH       FISHER             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY
            THE ROTAN FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

KB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
920 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W ROTAN               32.85N 100.55W
05/03/2021  M64 MPH          FISHER             TX   MESONET

&&

KB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
926 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             STAMFORD                32.94N 99.80W
05/03/2021  E0.75 INCH       JONES              TX   PUBLIC

&&

KB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
928 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             STAMFORD                32.94N 99.80W
05/03/2021  E1.00 INCH       JONES              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
932 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

TXZ049-113-127-040315-
Fisher TX-Jones TX-Taylor TX-
932 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JONES...SOUTHEASTERN
FISHER AND NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 931 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
around 10 miles west of Noodle, or about 15 miles southwest of Anson,
moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Noodle around 940 PM CDT.
  Hawley around 1000 PM CDT.
  Abilene and Nugent around 1010 PM CDT.
  Hamby around 1015 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Impact, Hodges, Lake
Fort Phantom Hill, Stith and Truby.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3252 9962 3251 9963 3248 9963 3253 10024
      3271 10021 3274 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 269DEG 37KT 3261 10014

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