Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
912 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Convective Inhibition (CIN) is increasing quickly across the
extreme southern parts of our forecast area where the two Sutton
County severe storms are. This is likely the last gasp for surface
based severe storms tonight. ML CAPE is still decent, around
500-1000 J/KG, along with strengthening effective shear (up to
50-60 kt now), so these two storms may be able to sustain their
updrafts for a little while before weakening. With the strong,
sustained updrafts continuing and ample CAPE within the -10 to
-30 C layer (the hail growth zone) of around 500 J/KG, large to
very large hail remains the main threat. The cold front has moved
south of the forecast area and into Austin/San Antonio's county
warning area, and so expect the surface based storms to end in the
next hour or two due to continued cooler, more stable low level
air. However, late tonight into early Tuesday morning, some
elevated moisture and elevated instability combining with an upper
level disturbance could bring some high based (elevated) storms
across the forecast area, although there is only a marginal threat
for severe storms from this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

A well developed cumulus field had developed along and south of a
cold front at 245 PM CDT...from Big Lake to San Angelo to
Brady...then south to Sonora and Junction. This area is unstable
with SPC mesoanalysis page indicating SBCAPES of 3000 J/KG. Short
range models indicate storms developing in this region around 5
PM...with additional storms later this evening....farther north in
the Big Country...as warm moist air aloft moves over cool air at the
surface. SPC has a slight risk of severe storms along and east of an
Ozona to San Angelo to Winters to Cross Plains line. Main threats
are large hail and damaging winds. Storms will weaken by midnight.

Tuesday will be cooler. Isolated showers are possible in the morning
with rain chances...with perhaps a thunderstorm...increasing in the
afternoon...as some weak upper shortwaves move though. No severe
storms are expected Tuesday as the atmosphere will not be as
unstable. Clouds and showers will keep highs mainly in the 60s
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

The extended period will feature cooler temperatures into next
weekend, along with rain chances each day. Post frontal airmass
will remain in place Wednesday into Thursday, with mostly cloudy
skies and below normal temperatures. Looking at mostly zonal flow
aloft through this time frame, with perhaps some minor embedded
disturbances affecting the area. Will maintain chance POPs through
Thursday, due to these weak disturbances and some isentropic
ascent occurring. Models show a more significant system affecting
the region Thursday night into the Saturday, as an upper trough
tracks across the Rockies and into the Plains. This system is
expected to send another cold front south across the area Friday
night, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air into the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday into
Saturday, associated with the front and lift from the upper
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are occurring this evening to
the south and southeast of KBBD, and to the northeast of KJCT.
With storm movement generally to the east and new storm
development to the south, the KJCT site may potentially be
affected and monitoring radar trends for any needed TAF
updates. Carrying VCTS at this time. A cold front is sagging
south to the I-10 corridor this evening. Winds will shift to the
north-northeast at KSOA and KJCT with the frontal passage.
Overnight into Tuesday morning, north to northeast winds will
continue, at 10-13 knots. Cloud development and gradual northward
expansion is expected late tonight into the day Tuesday. Have some
uncertainty at this time on how low the ceilings will be. Overall
thinking is for ceilings to lower into the 1000-2000 ft range.
Cannot rule out the possibility of some intermittent light rain
or sprinklies, but confidence in occurrence is low enough to
hold off with a mention at our TAF sites at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 50  65  50  59 /  30  40  50  50
San Angelo 	 53  65  52  63 /  40  40  40  50
Junction 	 55  70  56  70 /  40  40  30  50
Brownwood 	 53  68  53  64 /  40  30  50  50
Sweetwater 	 48  62  49  58 /  20  40  50  50
Ozona      	 55  65  55  66 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
224 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-131930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
224 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon and
evening. The best potential for severe storms is along and east
of an Ozona...San Angelo...Winters....Cross Plains line. The
primary hazards are large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening. Please relay any information about observed weather to
the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

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