Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
605 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...Severe Storms Possible Late this Afternoon and Tonight...

Water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level low moving
slowly eastward across the AZ/UT border, with southwest flow aloft
over West Texas. On visible satellite, mid and high clouds across
West Central Texas are gradually moving out of the area, while
low clouds are partially clearing, resulting in increasing day-
time heating, which should help increase instability potential
this afternoon. At the surface, a north-to-south oriented dry-line
stretched from the NM/TX Border south through the Big Bend
region, with dewpoints in the 20s/30s west of the dry-line and low
to mid 60s east of the dry-line. As the day goes on, the dry-line
will mix east into the Permian Basin, while a Pacific cold front
coming in from the west approaches from behind. This front will
effectively merge with the dry-line by late afternoon, and the
front will continue to push east into West Central Texas early
this evening through late tonight. The aforementioned moisture
east of the dry-line, late afternoon/evening instability, and lift
from frontal convergence and a short-wave rotating around the
low, will result in thunderstorms and showers developing late this
afternoon just west of our region and moving across our forecast
area from west to east though late tonight. All hi-res models
indicate that the storms will form in a line along the cold front
as it moves through, with some weaker storms or light showers
lingering behind the main squall line. By sunrise Sunday, any
showers/storms should be east of our forecast area.

Early this evening, the nocturnal southerly jet strengthens,
resulting in very strong 0-6 km shear of 60-75 KT, while 0-1 km
shear of 15-25 KT supports the potential for a few tornadoes as
well. Meanwhile, with continued day-time heating and dewpoints in
the low 60s, ML CAPE values look to increase to around 1000-2000
J/KG. Thus, the combination of instability and shear could result
in strong to severe storms. SPC convective outlook has most of our
forecast area in a Slight Risk, except in the western and
northwestern Big Country where there is an Enhanced Risk. Also,
the Northwest Hill Country and eastern Heartland regions are in a
Marginal Risk. Main threats are large to very large hail (largest
hail in our extreme western counties), damaging winds (with the
potential for 75+ mph wind gusts in the western and northwestern
Big Country and western Concho Valley), and a few tornadoes
(highest risk in the western counties).

Sunday, look for skies to clear with dry, gusty westerly winds
moving in. Dewpoints lowering into the 20s will likely result in
relative humidities lowering into the 15-20 percent range by late
afternoon, which could combine with the gusty winds to create
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Patchy blowing
dust could get blown into our region from the west during the
afternoon due to gusty west winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 40
mph. Warm, downsloping westerly flow could result in warmer
temperatures than many models are showing, with official forecast
highs in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Looks like quiet weather Sunday night through Monday night as
weak upper ridging will be over the area. The next weather system
will move into the area Tuesday afternoon and night. An upper
level short wave will combine with returning gulf moisture to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night. Also,
much of west central Texas will be in the warm sector, east of the
dryline and south of a developing warm front Tuesday afternoon
and evening. A few strong storms are possible across the eastern
half of the area Tuesday night. For Wednesday through Saturday,
look for dry weather and breezy conditions on Wednesday and
Thursday. Also, cooler temperatures are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Thunderstorms will move into the TAF sites this evening, affecting
most sites between 00Z and 06Z. Will have some TEMPO groups in the
forecasts to account for briefly MVFR conditions as the storms
move through. Could also see some large hail and damaging winds
with these storms, with the best chances for that at KABI and
KSJT. After the storms move through, conditions will improve to
VFR within a few hours, remaining VFR through tomorrow afternoon.
Will see west winds increase to 15 to 25 knots, and gusty
tomorrow by late morning, through the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 46  71  47  73 /  90   0   0   0
San Angelo 	 43  72  45  76 /  90   0   0   0
Junction 	 47  73  42  79 /  80   0   0   0
Brownwood 	 49  72  44  78 /  80   5   0   0
Sweetwater 	 44  69  48  73 /  80   0   0   0
Ozona      	 42  71  42  75 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
149 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-142000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
149 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across western portions
of the forecast area late this afternoon and early evening, and
spread east across the rest of West Central Texas through late
tonight. Some of the storms may become severe, especially this
evening. Large to possibly very large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes are possible. The threat for strongest wind gusts,
potentially reaching 75 mph, will be across the western Big
Country and northwest Concho Valley. Frequent cloud to ground
lightning is also expected with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday
afternoon due to gusty west winds and low humidity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening. Please
relay any information about observed weather to the NWS while
following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

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