Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS San Angelo, TX

096 
WWUS54 KSJT 151500
SVSSJT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1000 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

TXC267-327-413-435-151530-
/O.CON.KSJT.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-210415T1530Z/
Schleicher TX-Kimble TX-Menard TX-Sutton TX-
1000 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCHLEICHER...NORTHWESTERN KIMBLE...SOUTHWESTERN
MENARD AND NORTHEASTERN SUTTON COUNTIES...

At 959 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Fort Mckavett, or 24 miles east of Eldorado, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe storm will be near...
  Fort Mckavett around 1015 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Camp Sol
Mayer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 10029 3079 10029 3086 9999 3064 9996
      3064 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1459Z 257DEG 31KT 3074 10022 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

JW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
809 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE
... Issued at 809 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are beginning to
develop across western portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley
and northern Edwards Plateau early this morning. Showers/thunderstorms
will increase in coverage across much of the area through the
morning hours, as lift increases due to some weak impulses in the
flow aloft. Thunderstorms this morning will be elevated, but given
steep mid level lapse rates (7-7.5 C/km) and effective bulk shear
between 50 and 60 knots, hail will be possible and even some
isolated large hail with the strongest storms. Precipitable water
values are just over an inch, so expect heavy downpours as well.
The severe weather threat will increase this afternoon, as
instability increases some and shear remains strong. Multicell
clusters and a few supercells are expected, with large to very
large hail (golfball to baseball) possible with the strongest
storms. The greatest threat for severe storms this afternoon will
generally be south and east of a Cross Plains, San Angelo to Ozona
line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

Early this morning patchy mist had developed across much of the
area with visibilities down to 2 miles at San Angelo. Meanwhile,
water vapor imagery showed an upper level trough over New Mexico.
As the trough approaches today, upper level ascent will increase
leading to scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm
development later this morning and continuing into the afternoon.
Forecast soundings across the southern half of the area show
decent amounts of elevated instability (MUCAPE values of 1500 to
2500+ per the NAM) along with bulk shear values of 50-60 knots.
Thus, strong to severe storms are possible, with the primary
hazards being large hail (potentially larger than golf ball size)
and damaging winds. SPC has placed much of the area south of the
I-20 corridor in a slight risk today for severe weather. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will continue tonight into Friday
morning as the main upper level low over the Rockies ejects into
the Plains. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy and cool conditions
will today, with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

Little change to the current extended forecast. Have continued
the general downward trend in rain chances from Friday into the
weekend. An upper level low will move through the southern plains
Thursday night into Friday, and the attendant trough axis will
move east of our area during the day Friday. Although there is
still an outside chance for precipitation for the western half of
the area, showers and thunderstorms should be mainly east of a
Sweetwater to Junction line by Friday morning, then clear out of
the rest of the area by mid afternoon. Temperatures will be quite
a bit warmer, ranging from around 70 degrees far north, to the mid
80s along the I-10 corridor.

A cold front will follow behind the southern plains trough,
bringing cool temperatures back into the area on Saturday. Behind
this next front, have kept the forecast dry for most of our area,
with only Slight Chance PoPs south of a Sterling City to San
Angelo to Mason line at times from Sunday into Monday. The
forecast will remain dry Tuesday and Wednesday. After cool highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Saturday, temperatures will
steadily climb each day through the middle of next week, with
highs back into the upper 60s to upper 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions have spread across the area this
morning. Expect these conditions to persist much of the day, with
perhaps a slight improvement in ceilings this afternoon. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are still forecast to impact the
terminals later this morning and continuing for much of the
afternoon. Another round of fog and mist is possible tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 62  56  73  41 /  80  60  20  10
San Angelo 	 66  59  80  44 /  80  40  10  10
Junction 	 69  60  84  45 /  60  40  20  10
Brownwood 	 64  57  77  44 /  80  50  30  10
Sweetwater 	 62  56  73  41 /  80  50  10   5
Ozona      	 68  61  82  45 /  80  30   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
429 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-160930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
429 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today. The
main concern will be large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
848 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

TXZ077-151430-
Schleicher TX-
848 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SCHLEICHER COUNTY UNTIL
930 AM CDT...

At 847 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Eldorado, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Schleicher
County, including the following locations... The Intersection Of Us-
190 And Ranch Road 2084.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3076 10065 3091 10072 3109 10040 3088 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1347Z 234DEG 32KT 3089 10059

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
922 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

TXZ078-169-151500-
Kimble TX-Sutton TX-
922 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIMBLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SUTTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

At 921 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southwest of Roosevelt, or 19 miles north of Rocksprings,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Roosevelt around 955 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include I-10 Near The
Sutton-kKmble County Line.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3057 10014 3038 9983 3029 10002 3029 10043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 225DEG 31KT 3030 10028

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
938 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

TXZ072-073-077-151515-
Schleicher TX-Tom Green TX-Concho TX-
938 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SCHLEICHER...
SOUTHEASTERN TOM GREEN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONCHO COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM
CDT...

At 937 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Vancourt, or 14 miles east of Christoval, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Vancourt around 955 AM CDT.
  Eola around 1010 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Vick.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3102 10022 3119 10036 3145 10007 3119 9988
      3109 10009 3109 10011 3107 10012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 229DEG 32KT 3116 10026

JW