Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Low level southerly flow continues to advect gulf moisture north
across west central Texas this afternoon. For the boundaries,
dryline located over eastern New Mexico and cold front near a
Lubbock to Childress to Enid OK line. Latest SPC instability
analysis indicates strong SBCAPE from the eastern Permian Basin into
northwest Texas and SBCIN almost gone. The Hi-Res models develops
thunderstorms across this zone late this afternoon and evening and
moves the convection into the Big Country this evening. The
combination of some vertical wind shear and moderate instability
will result in a few strong to severe storms. The main hazards will
be large hail and damaging winds. Also, heavy rainfall and localized
flooding is possible across the Big Country tonight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected a little further south along
a Sterling City to Coleman line. For Sunday, the morning may see
showers and a few thunderstorms across the northern half of the
area. The afternoon will see surface heating and Hi-Res models
indicate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
across much of the area due to weak instability. Mild lows for
tonight and cooler weather for Sunday but still humid in the
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Sunday night, a weak cold front will remain stalled just to the
north and west of our forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop in the vicinity of the boundary. Most of this
activity will remain across our northern and northwest counties, with
rain chances quickly dropping off as you head south and east. More
of the same for Monday, with the best rain chances across the
northern half of the area. Highs on Monday will be below seasonal
normals, in the 80s. On Tuesday, a bit better moisture will advect
into the area as an inverted trough moves ashore across South Texas.
Still, NBM PoPs were bumped down a bit, generally in the 50-60
percent range. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

Wednesday and Thursday, a weak upper level ridge is forecast to
develop across the area. Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms
are possible each day, but activity should remain isolated to
scattered. Highs will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

Friday into the weekend, the aforementioned upper level ridge will
weaken, while a weak cold front pushes into the region. This will
bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms for much of
the area. High temperatures will remain below seasonal normals,
generally in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Latest CAM's continue to bring a cluster of storms across the Big
Country and the KABI terminal this evening, so have adjusted the
timing of the possible storms but left a mention. Otherwise, VFR
conditions this evening and into the overnight hours, with more
MVFR cigs developing across the southern terminals by sunrise.
Should start to see winds swing a little more southeast at more
sites, with wind speeds decreasing for Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 72  87  69  83 /  50  50  60  70
San Angelo 	 73  92  69  88 /  20  30  30  40
Junction 	 72  91  69  87 /   5  20  20  40
Brownwood 	 74  91  70  86 /  10  30  30  60
Sweetwater 	 69  83  68  81 /  60  40  60  60
Ozona      	 73  90  69  86 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
203 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-271915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
203 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
into the evening hours, mainly north of a Sterling City to Abilene
to Albany line. The main hazards will be damaging winds, large
hail, and dangerous lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday into next week across
West Central Texas. Dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall
will be the main hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
920 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXZ064-270245-
Sterling TX-
920 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN STERLING COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

At 919 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Sterling City, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Sterling
County.

LAT...LON 3209 10083 3187 10082 3184 10126 3208 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 243DEG 34KT 3197 10118