Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
134 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop just west of
the area early this afternoon, in advance of a dryline/Pacific
front currently over far West Texas. Little changes were made in
the short term through early evening since the last update sent
out just before noon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing and advancing east across the area through the
afternoon and early evening hours. While instability will be
marginal today due to extensive cloud cover, a few severe storms
will be possible across the northern two thirds of the forecast
area, in advance of the Pacific front. Initial storms may be
discrete but should for into a line or broken line of storms as
they progress eastward during the mid/late afternoon hours. Large
hail will be the primary threat initially, with wind and hail a
threat as storms become more linear with time. The severe threat
will end across eastern sections by early evening, as the Pacific
front moves through.

Gusty south to southwest winds will continue this afternoon,
then gusty west to southwest winds will develop behind the front
through the evening hours. Strongest winds will occur across far
western counties and will leave the current Wind Advisory intact
across Fisher, Nolan, Sterling and Coke counties through 8 PM.
Also, could see some patchy blowing dust develop across western
counties late this afternoon and early evening. Skies will clear
across the area from west to east this evening, with diminishing
winds by late evening. Temperatures will be chilly overnight,
with daybreak readings in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Pleasant
weather is expected tomorrow, with lighter winds, sunny skies
and afternoon highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Another upper low/upper trough will move northeast across the
Texas Panhandle Wednesday and into Kansas Wednesday night. A cold
front also moves into the Big Country Wednesday afternoon, and
through the rest of West Central Texas Wednesday night. A
secondary upper trough will also move across the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A few showers and even
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Thursday morning, but
moisture and instability will be somewhat limited...so shower and
thunderstorm potential is not high. It will be cooler Thursday
with highs in the lower to mid 60s, with rain chances ending by
noon.

Warming is expected Friday into Saturday, with highs Friday in
the mid/upper 70s and lower 80s Saturday. A cold front moves
through Sunday cooling temperatures slightly, but no precipitation
is expected with lack of moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

IFR/MVFR ceilings will affect the far southern terminals through
mid afternoon, with MVFR ceilings at KSJT and KABI. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the terminals after
19Z, then spread east across the area this afternoon. Southward
extent of convection is somewhat uncertain, so will only mention
VCTS at the southern terminals but continue with TEMPO groups
for TS at KSJT and KABI. Gusty south winds will occur this
afternoon ahead of a dryline/Pacific front, then gusty southwest
to west winds expected late this afternoon and early evening as
the Pacific front moves through. Winds will diminish across the
area by late evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 41  73  47  70 /  10   0   5  20
San Angelo 	 40  78  47  74 /  10   0   0   5
Junction 	 40  79  48  79 /  30   0   0  10
Brownwood 	 42  74  46  74 /  50   0   0  20
Sweetwater 	 42  73  47  67 /   5   0   5  10
Ozona      	 41  76  47  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Fisher-Nolan-
Sterling.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
201 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-231915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
201 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible across much of the region this afternoon.
A few of these storms could be strong to potentially severe,
mainly north of a line from San Angelo to Mason. The main hazards
will be large hail and damaging winds.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
late this afternoon and early evening, mainly west of a
Sweetwater to Robert Lee to Ozona line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
207 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

TXZ076-221945-
Crockett TX-
207 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CROCKETT COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sheffield, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Crockett
County, including the following locations... Ft Lancaster, The
Intersection Of I-10 And Highway 405, The Intersection Of I-10 And
Highway 290 and I-10 Near The Crockett-Pecos County Line.

LAT...LON 3057 10165 3059 10166 3062 10166 3065 10169
      3066 10177 3068 10178 3070 10181 3074 10182
      3098 10138 3060 10122 3055 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 239DEG 49KT 3069 10172

JW