River Flood Warning 7, NWS San Angelo, TX

208 
WGUS84 KSJT 040125
FLSSJT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
825 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Clear Fork Brazos River Near Roby affecting Fisher County.

TXC151-040230-
/O.CAN.KSJT.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210604T0125Z/
/ROYT2.1.ER.210603T1848Z.210603T2000Z.210603T2109Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Clear Fork Brazos River Near Roby has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Clear Fork Brazos River Near Roby.
* At 7:45 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 6.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 3.2 feet Tuesday 
  evening.


&&

LAT...LON 3282 10045 3280 10033 3274 10022 3270 10025
      3277 10039 3278 10045

$$

21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
233 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

An upper trough remains over our area this afternoon. With clearing
skies and destabilization of the airmass, scattered thunderstorms
have developed in the southern Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos
areas. The development is along an apparent outflow boundary
extending from just east of Wink to just west of Big Lake. Visible
satellite imagery also shows an apparent MCV over Fort Stockton.
Isolated showers are developing in Sterling County as well.

Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
into our area during the remainder of this afternoon and into this
evening. A few stronger pulse type storms are possible. The main
hazards from thunderstorms will be dangerous lightning and locally
heavy rainfall.

A weak closed low is expected to develop over the southern half of
our area overnight with a slow eastward drift on Friday. Low rain
chances will continue tonight into Friday morning, with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected by Friday afternoon.
The higher Pops and greater coverage will be generally across the
area southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line on Friday. Once
again, dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the
main hazards. The ground is saturated or nearly saturated across
some of the area from heavy rainfall during the past week. With a
fairly moist airmass and the convection expected to be slow-
moving, this may lead to localized flooding. Partly cloudy skies
early tonight will become mostly cloudy overnight. Mostly cloudy
skies Friday morning will become partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Little temperature change is expected, with forecast lows tonight
in the lower to mid 60s, and highs Friday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

An upper level low will meander across West Central Texas Friday
night through Saturday, then slowly begin to lift north and east on
Sunday. The low will aid in the development of isolated to
scattered, mainly diurnally driven, showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday. The best rain chances will be across our east
and southeast counties. Temperatures through the weekend will
continue to be below seasonal normals. Highs will generally be in
the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 60s.

As the aforementioned upper level low moves toward northeast
Texas/eastern Oklahoma, an upper level ridge will build across
northern Mexico/far West Texas. This will place the forecast area in
general northwest flow aloft. The GFS continues to indicate
convection moving southeast across the area Sunday night into Monday
morning, along the periphery of the ridge. The ECMWF is drier, so
for now have kept PoPs in the slight chance to low end chance
category, with the best chances across our eastern counties.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through
the middle of the week, with again the highest chances across our
eastern counties. Highs through the middle of next week will
continue to be below seasonal normal. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and early tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening, mainly across the eastern
half of the area. Winds will be from the east to southeast.
Around Midnight, low cloud development is initially expected over
the far southern and southeastern parts of our area. This will be
followed by overnight northward expansion of low cloud cover.
Low cloud ceilings at our TAF sites are expected to be 1000-2000
ft. By late Friday morning or midday, cloud ceilings should climb
above 3000 ft. Isolated to scattered showers may develop late
Friday morning. Winds on Friday morning will be mainly from the
southeast at 5-10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 62  78  63  78 /  20  30  10  30
San Angelo 	 61  80  63  82 /  30  40  20  30
Junction 	 63  78  64  79 /  30  70  40  50
Brownwood 	 63  78  63  78 /  30  50  20  50
Sweetwater 	 61  79  62  79 /  20  30   5  10
Ozona      	 62  78  64  80 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
203 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-041915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
203 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and early evening. The main hazards are locally heavy rainfall
and dangerous lightning. Heavy rainfall could cause localized
flooding, especially in areas which have received heavy rain
during the past several days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each day,
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. The higher
chances for thunderstorms will be in eastern and southeastern
parts of West Central Texas. The main hazards will be dangerous
lightning and heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.