Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 452 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed early this
morning generally along and northeast of a Sterling City to San
San Angelo to Brady line. Forcing for ascent associated with a
shortwave trough over the Red River Valley will lead to more
showers and storms developing through the morning and into the
afternoon hours. Similar to yesterday, storms will be capable of
producing 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates, with isolated higher
totals possible. High res models favor generally the northeastern
portion of our area through the afternoon hours for additional
showers and thunderstorms. Have the highest PoPs concentrated
across the eastern Concho Valley and Big Country the remainder of
the morning and into the afternoon. While scattered activity is
possible across the northern Edwards Plateau and western/southern
Concho Valley (where as much as 4-8+ inches of rain fell
yesterday), heaviest rains will likely remain north of these areas
today. Otherwise, expect highs today in the mid to upper 80s.
Will continue with a chance (20-30 percent) of scattered storms
overnight, with the highest PoPs across the Big Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

A quieter weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast,
with a warming and drying trend. The subtropical ridge over the
northern Gulf of Mexico will build back to the northwest into west
Texas. Although we could still see a few diurnally driven showers
Thursday afternoon, drier air will be moving into the area.
Expect a mostly dry forecast for the weekend into next week, with
only isolated thunderstorm chances in the afternoons. Afternoon
highs should warm back into the mid to upper 90s for the weekend
into next week.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect the KABI and KJCT
sites early this afternoon. This activity is still expected to
continue making progress east and northeast this afternoon and
evening, so will keep TEMPO groups through the middle of the
afternoon today to address additional precipitation chances.
Expect mainly VFR conditions from late this afternoon through 06Z
tonight. MVFR CIGs may move back into the area Thursday morning,
mainly during the early morning hours, mainly for KJCT/KSOA/KBBD.
Less coverage is expected from any potential precipitation
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 72  91  73  93 /  20  30   5  10
San Angelo 	 73  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10
Junction 	 73  93  72  94 /  30  20   5   5
Brownwood 	 74  92  73  94 /  30  30   5   5
Sweetwater 	 72  92  72  91 /  20  30  10  10
Ozona      	 72  90  71  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
413 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-190915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
413 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today. The main
concern will be locally heavy rainfall, which may result in
flooding. In addition, dangerous lightning will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.