Dust Storm Warning 2, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
641 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop just west of
the area early this afternoon, in advance of a dryline/Pacific
front currently over far West Texas. Little changes were made in
the short term through early evening since the last update sent
out just before noon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing and advancing east across the area through the
afternoon and early evening hours. While instability will be
marginal today due to extensive cloud cover, a few severe storms
will be possible across the northern two thirds of the forecast
area, in advance of the Pacific front. Initial storms may be
discrete but should for into a line or broken line of storms as
they progress eastward during the mid/late afternoon hours. Large
hail will be the primary threat initially, with wind and hail a
threat as storms become more linear with time. The severe threat
will end across eastern sections by early evening, as the Pacific
front moves through.

Gusty south to southwest winds will continue this afternoon,
then gusty west to southwest winds will develop behind the front
through the evening hours. Strongest winds will occur across far
western counties and will leave the current Wind Advisory intact
across Fisher, Nolan, Sterling and Coke counties through 8 PM.
Also, could see some patchy blowing dust develop across western
counties late this afternoon and early evening. Skies will clear
across the area from west to east this evening, with diminishing
winds by late evening. Temperatures will be chilly overnight,
with daybreak readings in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Pleasant
weather is expected tomorrow, with lighter winds, sunny skies
and afternoon highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Another upper low/upper trough will move northeast across the
Texas Panhandle Wednesday and into Kansas Wednesday night. A cold
front also moves into the Big Country Wednesday afternoon, and
through the rest of West Central Texas Wednesday night. A
secondary upper trough will also move across the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A few showers and even
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Thursday morning, but
moisture and instability will be somewhat limited...so shower and
thunderstorm potential is not high. It will be cooler Thursday
with highs in the lower to mid 60s, with rain chances ending by
noon.

Warming is expected Friday into Saturday, with highs Friday in
the mid/upper 70s and lower 80s Saturday. A cold front moves
through Sunday cooling temperatures slightly, but no precipitation
is expected with lack of moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Storms in San Saba County should continue to move east out of the
area by 01Z this evening. Also, a wall of dust could impact the
western Concho Valley and western Big Country with 1/4 to 1 SM
visibility and W to NW wind gusts of 25-35 KT for 1-2 hours
through about 02Z this evening. Otherwise, VFR and dry conditions
expected through 00Z Wed. By about 02Z this evening, the whole
region should be experiencing W to NW winds of around 6-12 KT,
with those winds then weakening below 8 KT around 05-08Z. After
08Z, winds below 8 KT until around 21Z when SW winds strengthen to
8-12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 41  73  47  70 /  10   0   5  20
San Angelo 	 40  78  47  74 /  10   0   0   5
Junction 	 40  79  48  79 /  30   0   0  10
Brownwood 	 42  74  46  74 /  50   0   0  20
Sweetwater 	 42  73  47  67 /   5   0   5  10
Ozona      	 41  76  47  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Fisher-Nolan-
Sterling.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...SJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
201 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-231915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
201 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible across much of the region this afternoon.
A few of these storms could be strong to potentially severe,
mainly north of a line from San Angelo to Mason. The main hazards
will be large hail and damaging winds.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
late this afternoon and early evening, mainly west of a
Sweetwater to Robert Lee to Ozona line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
427 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

TXZ128-139-140-222200-
Callahan TX-Coleman TX-Brown TX-
427 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALLAHAN...
NORTHWESTERN BROWN AND NORTHEASTERN COLEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Coleman, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Burkett around 440 PM CDT.
  Cross Cut around 445 PM CDT.
  Cross Plains around 450 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Echo.

LAT...LON 3187 9898 3175 9946 3189 9957 3204 9950
      3220 9914 3214 9911 3208 9912 3208 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 243DEG 38KT 3194 9939

PO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
454 PM CDT MON MAR 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             SONORA                  30.57N 100.65W
03/22/2021  M0.50 INCH       SUTTON             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
513 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

TXZ154-168>170-222300-
Mason TX-Menard TX-Kimble TX-McCulloch TX-
513 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KIMBLE...
SOUTHWESTERN MCCULLOCH...SOUTHEASTERN MENARD AND NORTHWESTERN MASON
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Mckavett, or 17 miles southwest of Menard, moving northeast at
65 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Menard around 530 PM CDT.
  Hext around 540 PM CDT.
  Calf Creek around 545 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include The Intersection Of
Highway 29 And Ranch Road 1222, The Intersection Of Us-
83 And Ranch Road 1773, Camp Sol Mayer, Us-190 Near The Menard-
Mcculloch County Line, The Intersection Of Us-
190 And Ranch Road 1311 and The Intersection Of Us-83 And Highway 29.

LAT...LON 3072 10012 3082 10011 3116 9933 3080 9919
      3067 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 246DEG 56KT 3076 10002

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
515 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

TXZ114-128-222245-
Shackelford TX-Callahan TX-
515 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CALLAHAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Hamby, or 12 miles north of Clyde, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Albany around 535 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mccarty Lake and Us-
283 Near The Callahan-Shackelford County Line.

LAT...LON 3248 9958 3268 9961 3278 9922 3250 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 247DEG 35KT 3258 9950

PO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 PM CDT MON MAR 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             5 SSW SAN SABA          31.13N 98.75W
03/22/2021  M1.00 INCH       SAN SABA           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED ON RADAR.

&&

SJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
702 PM CDT MON MAR 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     DUST STORM       SWEETWATER              32.47N 100.40W
03/22/2021                   NOLAN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATES VISIBILITY OF 150-250 YARDS.

&&

SJH