Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
448 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

An MCS is approaching the Big Country area from the northwest, so
have increased PoPs there for these storms. Expect these to remain
below severe levels as they move through, but gusty winds, small
hail, and localized flooding will be possible, especially since
the Big Country has seen well above its average rainfall for the
last few weeks, and is primed for flooding.

Otherwise, expecting another day with mild temperatures warming
into the upper 70s to lower 80s, and humid conditions. After the
cluster of thunderstorms moves through the Big Country this
morning, rain chances will be 20 to 30 percent for the rest of the
daytime hours. However, thunderstorms are again expected to
develop to our west and northwest tonight over the higher terrain
as upper level shortwave energy moves into the area. This activity
may organize into another cluster of storms and move through
tonight. Exactly where, and the timing is uncertain at this point,
but at this time, is expected to occur after dark, and affect
areas mainly south of Interstate 20. If this occurs, some of the
storms could be strong to severe, with the main concerns being
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

Upper level troughing will remain over the area on Thursday.
Models continue to develop a cutoff low over West Central Texas
on Friday, with this feature remaining nearly stationary through
the weekend. A continued moist and unstable airmass will lead to
continued chances for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
By Monday and Tuesday of next week the upper low is progged to
slowly move off to the east, with an elongated upper level ridge
moving into the region from the west. Despite the influence of the
upper ridge, will continue to show at least a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the peak heating of the afternoon,
with the higher rain chances across the eastern half of the area.

Temperatures through the weekend will continue to run below
normal, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s under partly to
mostly cloudy skies. A warming trend can be expected for the
beginning to middle of next week- highs in the mid to 80s to near
90 degrees- as the upper ridge begins in influence the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

VFR conditions are in place across the area this evening. Expect
this to continue into the early morning hours with mid and upper
level clouds streaming across the area, hindering low cloud
development. However, there is a chance for some low clouds
between 12Z and 16Z Wednesday morning for our southern sites.
Expect most sites to improve to VFR by 18Z, and remain there
into the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 79  62  79  62 /  50  50  50  10
San Angelo 	 83  62  81  62 /  20  60  50  20
Junction 	 83  63  78  62 /  40  60  60  30
Brownwood 	 81  63  79  62 /  50  60  60  20
Sweetwater 	 79  61  79  62 /  50  40  30  10
Ozona      	 83  62  78  62 /  20  60  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
346 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-030900-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
346 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk for some storms to become strong to
severe across the area tonight. The main hazards with any storms
will be large hail, damaging wind gusts, and dangerous lightning.
Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours, will remain in the forecast through the upcoming
weekend. The main concern will be the potential for localized
flooding, however, gusty winds, hail, and dangerous lightning may
also accompany these thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
548 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

TXZ049-098-113-021145-
Haskell TX-Fisher TX-Jones TX-
548 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HASKELL...NORTHWESTERN JONES AND
FISHER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

At 546 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Guthrie to Lake Alan Henry. Movement was
southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Haskell, Hamlin, Rotan, Roby, Rule, Rochester, Weinert, O'brien,
Hobbs, Mccaulley, Paint Creek, Sagerton, Jud and Hitson.

LAT...LON 3339 9947 3314 9948 3280 9991 3258 10033
      3253 10066 3296 10065 3296 9999 3340 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1046Z 313DEG 30KT 3358 10026 3306 10103

sn

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