Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
454 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

.AVIATION...

Broken line of TSRA continues along a strong cold front in the
vicinity of the TYR and TXK terminals as well as scattered
prefrontal convection in the vicinity of the ELD and LFK
terminals. Cold front is moving southeast near 30 mph this morning
and thus, expect this line of convection to move across all
terminal locations this morning. Prefrontal ceilings are mostly
MVFR attm with some IFR ceilings noted across NE LA. Expect a
quick return to low VFR ceilings with heights near 35hdft directly
behind the front. Low VFR ceilings should scatter out from
northwest to southeast as well today but cloud cover will likely
hang on across the southern third of our airspace.

Winds will quickly shift around to the NNW to NNE behind the front
with sustained post frontal wind speeds near 12-18kts with gusts
upwards of 30kts. Pressure gradient should relax today by late
afternoon and especially this evening.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 144 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday/

Continuing to watch a broken line of strong thunderstorms across
SE OK into WC AR moving generally to the southeast near 35 mph
early this morning. Upstream warnings have been hard to come by
from neighboring offices as are convective wind reports even with
pressure gradient winds with the initial frontal passage near 40
mph in some locations. Taking a look at the mesoanalysis, SBCAPE
values are running near 1000 J/kg near and northwest of the I-30
Corridor this morning and the corridor is also showing a weaker
CAP environment vs what we are seeing across NW LA attm. Mid level
lapse rates are running near 7 deg/kg but having a difficult time
seeing much in the way of updraft strength southwest of NW AR
attm. Low level SRH values continue to be quite impressive with
0-3KM SRH values running between 300-350 m2/s2 assuming we see sfc
based parcels which I'm just not convinced of yet. Also of note
is a narrow corridor of much weaker 0-6km Deep Layer Bulk Shear
values under 30kts extending from N TX into far SE OK attm. That
would tend to favor less opportunity to see discrete storms ahead
of the cold front which a majority of the high res models have
backed off of attm. Regardless...will continue to advertise the
"potential" of seeing some strong to severe thunderstorms through
sunrise north of the I-20 Corridor and the possibility of similar
conditions through the noon hour today near and south of the I-20
Corridor.

Did hoist a Lake Wind Advisory for our entire region today for
post frontal winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph.
This will be much later in the day across our SE third but did
not segment the advisory. Also high temperatures will be reached
this morning with temperatures likely falling into the 40s behind
the front early this morning across our extreme northwest zones
and through the 50s behind the front across the remainder of our
region today. Categorical pops warranted for all areas south and
east of the frontal boundary beyond 12z this morning with rapid
clearing from northwest to southeast today with some temperature
recovery across our northwest half. Will likely not lose the cloud
cover completely across our southern most zones today however
with that cloud cover returning back north to near the I-20
Corridor overnight tonight. Much colder tonight with likely near
freezing across our northern third.

Weak isentropic forcing may result in some light precipitation
during the day Tuesday across our extreme southeast zones,
otherwise we should see returning southeasterly low level flow
across our southwest half which should help temperatures to
recover to near 60 degrees with cooler conditions across our
eastern third where temperatures will struggle to warm much in the
middle 50s.

13

LONG TERM.../Tuesday Night through Monday/

By Tuesday evening, the Four State Region will be generally clear of
the front, but chances of isolated showers remain across our
Louisiana parishes through the evening, diminishing by daybreak as
the upper level trough responsible for this recent activity finally
lifts to our north and east.

As upper level ridging begins to build back in from the west and
southerly surface flow dominates, generally dry conditions will
prevail through the day Wednesday and overnight into Thursday. The
break from the rain will be short lived, however, as lower end PoPs
begin to return as soon as Thursday afternoon across our
southeasternmost parishes, spreading north overnight and into the
day Friday. These rain chances look to keep mainly to the east of
the I-49 corridor through Friday evening before PoPs begin to
increase areawide in advance of the next significant weathermaker.

Long term models have continued to be consistent on the presence of
a strongly amplified trough digging southwards across the Great
Plains, setting up a pronounced jet streak over an environment
potentially favorable for the development of strong to severe
thunderstorms across the ArkLaTex next weekend. The timing of this
system remains a point of uncertainty, with some variability in the
speed with which the trough will eject eastwards from the Rockies.
The latest ensemble guidance is favoring a faster solution perhaps
delivering the front to the ArkLaTex in the early morning hours of
Saturday. If this does end up being the case, the reduced nocturnal
instability may hinder the development of stronger storms. However,
the unseasonably warm conditions which precede the arrival of this
system provide ample reason to pay close attention moving forward.
Will monitor closely through the coming week.

The presence of several large scale upper level features will bring
a true roller coaster of temperatures to the Four State Region
through the long term forecast period. Cool to mild temperatures
will follow the first front, with Wednesday starting off in the 30s
to 40s before warming into the 60s. Milder lows will follow as a
warming trend extends through the end of the week, bringing highs in
the mid to upper 70s Thursday and looking to hit or exceed 80
degrees at most sites along and south of I-20 Friday. Depending on
the speed of the next front and the cold air advection to follow,
highs Saturday look to range through the 60s to 70s from north to
south, falling sharply to overnight lows in the 30s areawide Sunday
morning and gradually warming to seasonable conditions under
mostly clear skies for early next week.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  40  57  44 /  90   0   0  20
MLU  70  38  52  42 /  90   0  10  20
DEQ  53  31  54  34 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  53  35  55  40 /  30   0   0  10
ELD  57  33  52  37 /  80   0   0  10
TYR  55  40  61  46 /  70   0   0  10
GGG  59  38  60  44 /  90   0   0  10
LFK  72  43  62  50 /  80  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

13/13/26

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
527 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

TXZ166-167-061215-
Sabine TX-San Augustine TX-
527 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern San
Augustine and southwestern Sabine Counties through 615 AM CST...

At 526 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Pineland, or 11 miles north of Ebenezer, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pineland, Browndell, McElroy and Yellowpine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3111 9415 3113 9418 3123 9422 3133 9381
      3117 9375 3116 9379 3116 9391 3114 9399
      3114 9404 3112 9404 3111 9406 3110 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 1126Z 253DEG 25KT 3121 9412

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

/26/