Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
632 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.AVIATION...

While VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period,
there may be a brief window for some MVFR visibility to occur at
KLFK past 14/11z.

/44/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/

For the rest of today...While the chance is fairly low, isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, with
the best chances coming for areas along and southeast of a line
from Lufkin, TX to Ringold, LA to near El Dorado, AR. Should
showers and thunderstorms move into this area, there is a threat a
few of them could become strong to severe at times. Already seeing
an uptick of thunderstorms firing across southwest Arkansas and
northwest Louisiana. Meanwhile, satellite imagery from this
afternoon continues to show an increase in cu across the entire
area. In addition, afternoon heat indices could reach the lower
to mid 100s, so continue to use caution if outdoors for an
extended period of time.

Upper-level ridge will continue to control the southwest CONUS
through the short term period and beyond. We could see additional
showers and thunderstorms across the area into the early overnight
hours as the passing backdoor cold front could struggle to clear
the area. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 70s once
again across the area. On Monday, additional afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will once again be possible across our far
southern and southwest zones as the remnant frontal boundary
lingers. High temperatures on Monday will once again climb into
the lower to mid 90s across the area with afternoon heat indices
reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s across the area. Monday night
will be slightly "cooler" across our northern zones with lows
falling into the upper 60s, with lower 70s expected elsewhere.

/33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  72  96 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  74  93  72  95 /  30  10   0   0
DEQ  71  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  95  69  95 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  75  94  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  94  72  95 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  74  96  75  96 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

33/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
115 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-
149-150-141200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-McCurtain-
Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-
Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
115 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon and evening across portions of East Texas and Southwest
Arkansas. In addition, temperatures will climb into the lower and
mid 90s, and when combined with the humidity, will result in heat
indices ranging from 100 to 105 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Hot and dry conditions are expected for much of this week across
the region, as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds back
east into the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be be needed through
tonight.

ARZ071>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ151>153-165>167-141200-
Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-
De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-
Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-
San Augustine-
115 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid
and late afternoon across Northcentral Louisiana and Lower East
Texas, and spread west southwest across these areas during the
evening in advance of an approaching upper level disturbance.
Given the extent of instability that has developed, some of these
storms may be strong to severe, with damaging winds and brief
heavy rainfall possible. These storms should gradually diminish late
tonight with reduced instability. In addition, afternoon
temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s across much of the
region. When combined with the humidity, heat indices will range
from 101 to 105 degrees, with some locations briefly exceeding 105
degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Monday afternoon and evening over the southern sections
of Northcentral Louisiana and Deep East Texas, before mostly dry
conditions return Tuesday through much of the coming work week.
Moisture should begin to increase by Saturday to support the
return of at least isolated showers and thunderstorms for next
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed this afternoon and
evening.

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
616 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

LAZ021-022-140000-
Caldwell LA-La Salle LA-
616 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CALDWELL AND NORTHERN LA
SALLE PARISHES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 616 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Columbia, moving south at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Jena, Olla, Clarks, Grayson, Midway, Urania, Tullos,
Spaulding, Riverton, Standard, Kelly, Zenoria and Burlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 9189 3207 9193 3204 9190 3193 9191
      3193 9201 3164 9201 3171 9237 3173 9236
      3174 9236 3176 9234 3178 9235 3178 9236
      3219 9211 3218 9198 3217 9198 3217 9194
      3216 9190 3214 9190 3213 9188
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 010DEG 25KT 3206 9202

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
710 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

LAZ019>022-140100-
Caldwell LA-Winn LA-La Salle LA-Grant LA-
710 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN
CALDWELL...LA SALLE AND EAST CENTRAL WINN PARISHES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

At 709 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jena, or 22 miles south of Columbia, moving south at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jena, Olla, Midway, Urania, Tullos, Georgetown, Nebo, Spaulding,
Rogers, Catahoula Lake, Standard, Rochelle, Zenoria and Burlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 9255 3201 9232 3189 9201 3143 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 021DEG 18KT 3178 9213

09