Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1250 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

.AVIATION...

For the 14/06Z TAF update, an active weather situation is ongoing
as a warm front bisects our airspace in a line generally from KTYR
to KELD. VCTS/TSRA convection has waned for now with remnant
MVFR/IFR cigs over our western terminals, however, that activity
will return in earnest by 14/10Z, and clear all terminals from
west to east by 14/20Z. After the convection exits the area, MVFR
cigs and winds from the east or northeast will persist through the
rest of the period. /16/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 909 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast was minor this evening, pertaining to the
returning warm front across our region and its effects on pops for
the remainder of the night.

Chasing a leftward moving supercell along a retreating warm front
this evening across portions of NE TX with several reports of
severe hail along its path before it finally dissipated across
Eastern Harrison County and Southwest Caddo Parish. We are still
dealing with some widely scattered convection across portions of
NE TX located along an instability axis which extends from SE TX
into extreme NW LA and SW AR. Latest HRRR and 00z NAM output
suggests that our western third will continue to see the
possibility of renewed convection in association with this
instability axis and the northwestward moving warm front before
broad scale lift increases dramatically late tonight and
therefore storm coverage does as well areawide.

Perturbation in developing southwest flow aloft coming out of the
TX Hill Country and a developing 30-40kt low level jet will
generate the necessary upward and isentropic forcing for the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
late tonight through the first half of Wednesday. While the
instability axis should weaken overnight, mid level lapse rates
are sufficient enough for at least some large hail overnight,
mainly across our southwest half, depicted best by SPC's
maintaining a Slight Risk across our region.

Only change was to reorganize pops for the remainder of the
evening more towards the west with likely pops areawide as we
approach sunrise Wed Morning.

Update will be out shortly...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  71  53 /  60  60  20  60
MLU  68  51  70  52 /  80  50  20  40
DEQ  67  49  70  49 /  50  30  10  60
TXK  64  50  69  52 /  50  40  10  50
ELD  64  48  70  48 /  60  40  10  40
TYR  69  52  70  54 /  40  60  20  60
GGG  69  52  70  52 /  50  60  20  60
LFK  73  55  72  56 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

16/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
320 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-142030-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
320 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase through the
afternoon and evening across portions of Deep East Texas and
West Central Louisiana, near a warm front that will lift north
across these areas. Given the moderate instability expected to
develop at the surface and aloft, some of these storms may be
strong or severe, with damaging winds and large hail possible.
While these storms should weaken this evening with the loss of
heating, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop
areawide late this evening through the overnight hours near and
behind a cold front and approaching upper level disturbance. Some
of these storms may also become strong or severe late tonight,
with large hail and possibly damaging winds again possible over
much of the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across much of the
region Wednesday morning, with an isolated severe weather threat
lingering near and behind the weak cold front across East Texas
and North Louisiana. Hail and locally gusty winds will remain
possible Wednesday morning, before the storms exit the region by
early afternoon. Additional scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible Wednesday night through
Saturday. However, no additional hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed this afternoon across
Deep East Texas and Northcentral Louisiana, and tonight across
much of the region.

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
113 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

TXZ136-140645-
Smith TX-
113 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY UNTIL 145 AM
CDT...

At 112 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tyler, moving north at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tyler, Lindale, Winona and Red Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3228 9524 3229 9543 3256 9544 3253 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 185DEG 14KT 3232 9533

24

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
241 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

TXZ125-126-137-138-140830-
Upshur TX-Gregg TX-Harrison TX-Marion TX-
241 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MARION...NORTHWESTERN
HARRISON...EASTERN UPSHUR AND CENTRAL GREGG COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM
CDT...

At 240 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near West Mountain to 6 miles southeast of
Longview. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Longview, Marshall, White Oak, Gladewater, Hallsville, Ore City,
Clarksville City, East Mountain, Diana, Harleton, Cedar Springs,
Union Grove, Warren City, Nesbitt and Judson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3291 9473 3289 9471 3288 9471 3288 9464
      3261 9429 3241 9469 3256 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 227DEG 18KT 3260 9489 3244 9471

24