Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
648 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.AVIATION...

For the 28/00z TAFs...Radar imagery showing an increase in showers
and thunderstorms across east Texas and southwest Arkansas. As
such, TSRA/SHRA and MVFR/IFR cigs through the overnight hours.
This activity is expected to continue until a cold front moves
through the area from west to east. We will see an increase in
winds greater than 10kts and will continue through much of the
remainder of this TAF period. /33/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/

With all of the Ark-La-Tex in the warm sector for multiple hours
today, the atmosphere is primed for severe weather as convection
begins. Diverse cloud cover hints at a tinderbox-like situation
aloft, with deepening cumulus, and more insolation reaching the
I-20 corridor. This afternoon's special sounding confirms the
continued presence of multiple ingredients for severe weather
including: CAPE values near 3000 J/kg, bulk shear at or above 50
knots areawide, and mid-level lapse rates at around 7.0 C/km. The
lack of synoptic-scale forcing is what is primarily working
against an even stronger severe weather situation. Regardless, the
severe weather risks for today will be maximized in a window from
now until 11PM, with very large hail and even the outside
possibility of a strong tornado in this time frame. Coordinating
with SPC this afternoon, a new tornado watch has been issued until
11 PM CDT for the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the northern
portions of the Ark-La-Miss.

For tonight, the ongoing severe weather threat will continue well
after sunset before storm mode transitions from scattered supercells
to a more linear multicell mode as the frontal boundary begins to
proceed through the Ark-La-Tex around midnight. After exiting our
eastern zones, dry conditions and cooler than average temperatures
arrive, continuing through Sunday night. /16/

LONG TERM.../Monday through the end of the week/

Expecting a nice initial start to the long term period with mostly
sunny skies and highs ranging from 70 to 75 degrees for your Monday.
However, expect the front clearing through our region in the short
term to start coming back north through the area (as a warm front)
late Monday night into Tuesday with a large upper trough axis
gradually driving a cold front toward the Four State region from the
northwest. Model consensus has gotten more bullish on the morning
runs in association with the warm front triggering increasing
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. It
is starting to look like some of these storms have the potential to
be on the strong side owing to available instability and wind shear,
although there is not yet enough confidence or consistency of trends
to advertise a severe thunderstorm potential yet. The incoming cold
front will probably undercut this whole regime and bring widespread
showers and embedded tame thunderstorms to the bulk of the area
(especially east) late Tuesday night through the first half of the
day Wednesday. Thereafter, anticipate a dry and seasonably cool
regime to lock in for a while.

This somewhat cooler regime will probably not break down until
sometime next weekend but, before then, expect Wednesday night
through Friday night to feature dry and mostly clear conditions with
lows generally in the 40s and highs mainly ranging from 65 to 70
degrees. /50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  70  45  71 /  80   0   0   0
MLU  60  70  44  70 /  80  10   0   0
DEQ  50  70  40  71 /  50   0   0   0
TXK  53  70  43  71 /  80   0   0   0
ELD  54  69  41  70 /  90   0   0   0
TYR  54  69  44  72 /  60   0   0   0
GGG  54  70  43  72 /  80   0   0   0
LFK  58  72  46  74 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

16/50/33

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
207 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-281915-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-
Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-
Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-
207 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous strong to severe storms are expected to
develop later this afternoon into early this evening across the
Arklatex into northern portions of the Arklamiss. Very large hail
of at least golf ball to tennis ball size and tornadoes will be
the primary threats through the early to mid evening hours. The
tornado threat will be highest in southwest Arkansas where a
strong tornado cannot be ruled out. In addition, there is a threat
for a quick 2 to 3 inches of rain in a band from northeastern
Texas, to northwestern Louisiana, to southwestern Arkansas to
bring an isolated risk of flash flooding. Storms are forecast to
congeal into a line sometime this evening and advance through the
remainder of the Arklamiss and central Louisiana into the early
morning hours, with damaging winds becoming the main threat. The
severe weather threat is expected to completely exit the area
before sunrise Sunday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

A few lingering thunderstorms will be possible across central
Louisiana early Sunday, but these should move east and south of
these areas by mid morning. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a
cold front should bring additional thunderstorms to the region.
However, no severe storms are expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will be needed this afternoon into
tonight.

LAZ017>022-TXZ165>167-281915-
Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Angelina-
San Augustine-
207 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Louisiana, northwest Louisiana and east Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible late
this afternoon and through the evening across these portions of
Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. Large hail up to golf ball
size and damaging winds will be the primary threats although a
tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Storms are forecast to
congeal into a line sometime this evening and advance through the
remainder of central Louisiana into the early morning hours, with
damaging winds becoming the main threat. The severe weather
threat is expected to completely exit the area before sunrise
Sunday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

A few lingering thunderstorms will be possible across central
Louisiana early Sunday, but these should move east and south of
these areas by mid morning. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a
cold front should bring additional thunderstorms to the region.
However, no severe storms are expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed later today and
tonight.

50

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
638 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TORNADO          6 SSW REKLAW            31.79N 95.04W
03/27/2021                   CHEROKEE           TX   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORT OF A TORNADO ON THE
            GROUND CROSSING HIGHWAY 343. TREE AND
            STRUCTURE DAMAGE OBSERVED.

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             5 NE PRESCOTT           33.86N 93.34W
03/27/2021  E2.50 INCH       NEVADA             AR   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
            ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF PRESCOTT.

&&

BB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
703 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TXZ112-126-280045-
Cass TX-Marion TX-
703 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MARION AND SOUTHERN CASS
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 702 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ore City, or 20 miles east of Gilmer, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Linden, Queen City, Fairview, Avinger and Lassater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Texas.

LAT...LON 3288 9468 3288 9466 3290 9466 3306 9447
      3318 9405 3272 9456 3276 9463 3282 9470
      3284 9467 3284 9470 3286 9470
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 223DEG 40KT 3282 9461

15