Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
555 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

.AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex terminals, a line of TS is dvlpg to our W and
will sweep due E at 20-25KT. TS cells are movg NE along the line
much faster with low level winds cranking 30-50KT 1-3 kft. A
large upper low/sfc low will keep to our N, but drag a fropa E
with the day. S/SW winds this a.m. will be 10-20KT with some
higher gusts shifting to W/SW same speeds. The LIFR/IFR cigs will
lift to IFR/MVFR with some heating and then clearing from W to E
18-24Z for most terminals. Any thunder will be brief with 2 hr
tempo windows this am for E TX as line will break up movg E with
loss of instability.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday/

The warm front has moved through Texarkana and ElDorado with SE
becoming S and a little gusty. While a few sites may briefly reach
lake wind criteria, the short time of duration and sweeping
motion of wind belt across the four state area will slack behind
the line of thunderstorms on approach now over N TX/S OK. Low to
mid 60s north of I-20 now with upper 68's to 70 south.

KSHV 88D is showing the developing line of thunderstorms nearing
McAlester, Durant and Denton moving eastward near 25 mph. Closer
to home a large area of mostly light showers is cropping up in E
TX with a few heavier elements on route to Carthage. Things will
pep up with the line, but at the same time seeing the instability
drop with eastward progression. The Slight risk overnight has seen
some warnings with hail and wind. The new day one is marginal for
our area in two hours and while some thunderstorms may become
strong, this is the least likely time of day for robust
convection.

So good news as we will mainly just have to deal with some brief
gusty winds ahead of the line and quarter to half inch amounts
with line and some change ahead. We will see this line weaken, but
continue moving quickly eastward all afternoon and clear our SE
corner maybe by 00Z. The afternoon sunshine will prove difficult
with highs as SW winds and sunshine is an easy undercut. So went a
little above guidance for highs. Lows tonight will begin to chill
a little in the I-30 corridor with mid 30s at the coldest, most
sites will be ranging all through the 40s on a NW to SE gradient.
Surface winds will become NW early on Tuesday and swing around to
NE during the day advecting in drier dew points, but still around
60 northwest to around 70 SE for highs under sunny skies. /24/

LONG TERM.../Tuesday Night through Monday/

By Tue Night, our region will continue to be under the influence of
southwesterly flow aloft as an upper level trough moves out of the
Four Corners Region of the country and into the Southern and Central
Plains. NBM is surprisingly void of much of any precipitation with
this trough with large spreads from the wetter NAM and drier CMC/GFS
and EC solutions. Will continue to advertise slight chance pops
areawide late Tue Night with the precipitation ending quickly from
west to east across our region during the day Wed with the passage
of a strong cold front. This will mark the end of the above normal
temperatures our area will have seen leading up to the arrival of
the front with near freezing to below freezing temperatures across
our entire Four State Region Wed Night/Thu Morning. After a cool day
on Thu and freezing temperatures across our northeast half Thu
Night, southerly flow will allow for a quick warmup across our
region to end the work week with highs on Friday from near 60 to the
middle 60s across most locations. Upper ridging will dominate the
center of the country late Thu into Friday but changes will be
coming for the weekend.

A vigorous upper level trough across the Southwest U.S. on Friday
will be a quick mover into the Intermountain West Friday Night and
into the Plains for Saturday. This will result in increasing rain
chances across our region for Saturday with the precipitation ending
across our region Saturday Night with hopefully a dry second half to
the upcoming weekend. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  46  71  44 /  80   0   0  20
MLU  73  48  68  46 /  60  20  10  20
DEQ  73  37  60  37 /  80   0   0  20
TXK  73  44  63  42 /  80   0   0  20
ELD  73  42  66  40 /  60   0   0  20
TYR  72  43  66  44 /  70   0   0  20
GGG  75  45  68  44 /  80   0   0  20
LFK  76  45  72  46 /  60   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

24/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
425 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-261200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-
Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-
425 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A narrow line of strong thunderstorms are expected to accompany a
strong cold front moving from west to east across the region
today. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts and hail will be possible
with this line later this morning through early this afternoon.
While an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across
the region today, widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected
at this time. The thunderstorm activity should be east of the Four
State Region by this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

While widespread severe thunderstorm are not expected today...an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. Therefore...activation
of emergency management personnel...amateur radio operators...and
storm spotters cannot be completely ruled out through early this
afternoon. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

LAZ013-014-017>022-TXZ165>167-261200-
Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
Angelina-San Augustine-
425 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Louisiana, northwest Louisiana and east Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to accompany a
strong cold front today. Strong gusty winds and small hail could
accompany any stronger storms today but severe weather is not
likely. The activity should be east of the region by this evening.
Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
634 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

OKZ077-TXZ096-251330-
McCurtain OK-Red River TX-
634 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED RIVER COUNTIES
UNTIL 730 AM CST...

At 633 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Nashoba to 10 miles east of Honey Grove.
Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Idabel, Broken Bow, Bogata, Bagwell, Manchester, Wright
City, Valliant, Detroit, Millerton, Garvin, Rufe, Smithville,
Hochatown, Watson, Battiest, Pickens, Mount Herman, Woodland and
Redland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9446 3438 9446 3348 9500 3347 9531
      3388 9531 3387 9530 3391 9528 3389 9526
      3396 9523 3394 9516 3423 9515 3425 9505
      3451 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1233Z 238DEG 53KT 3445 9516 3353 9575

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
748 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

TXZ108>110-251430-
Camp TX-Franklin TX-Titus TX-
748 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN...TITUS AND NORTHERN
CAMP COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CST...

At 747 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hagansport to 7 miles west of Purley to
near Como. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant, Pittsburg, Winnsboro, Leesburg, Mount Vernon, Cason,
Wilkerson, Cookville, Scroggins, Purley, Newsome, Winfield, Miller's
Cove, Rocky Mound, Hopewell, Monticello, Roeder, Harvard and Cypress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 9531 3333 9530 3338 9484 3335 9481
      3298 9482 3297 9515 3300 9515 3300 9516
      3298 9516 3297 9517 3296 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1347Z 239DEG 35KT 3328 9529 3308 9537 3298 9551

15

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
802 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

ARZ050-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-251445-
Sevier AR-Little River AR-McCurtain OK-Bowie TX-Red River TX-
802 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LITTLE RIVER...
SOUTHWESTERN SEVIER...SOUTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN...NORTHWESTERN BOWIE AND
EAST CENTRAL RED RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL 845 AM CST...

At 801 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Idabel to 14 miles east of
Clarksville to near Boxelder. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Horatio, Foreman, Lockesburg, Winthrop, Arkinda, Avery, Annona,
Haworth, Bokhoma, Almont, Moon, Cerrogordo, Beaverdams, Goodlake,
Harris, Central, Goodwater, Shinewell, English and Wallace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 9413 3378 9420 3352 9442 3353 9498
      3366 9490 3392 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1401Z 257DEG 30KT 3382 9471 3368 9482 3353 9490

15