Lake Wind Advisory 22, NWS Shreveport, LA

Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, McCurtain County, OK, Angelina County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX

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WWUS74 KSHV 101821
NPWSHV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
121 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

ARZ059-070-071-LAZ001-002-010-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165-110600-
/O.CON.KSHV.LW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-211011T0600Z/
Little River-Miller-Lafayette-Caddo-Bossier-De Soto-McCurtain-
Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-
Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-
Shelby-Angelina-
Including the cities of Ashdown, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville, 
Bradley, Shreveport, Bossier City, Mansfield, Stonewall, 
Logansport, Idabel, Broken Bow, Clarksville, Bogata, 
Mount Vernon, Mount Pleasant, Pittsburg, Daingerfield, Lone Star,
Naples, Omaha, Atlanta, Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City, 
Mineola, Winnsboro, Quitman, Hawkins, Gilmer, Big Sandy, 
Jefferson, Tyler, Longview, Marshall, Jacksonville, Rusk, 
Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches, Center, and Lufkin
121 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, 
  southwest Arkansas and east and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...Through 1 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will 
  create hazardous conditions for small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on area lakes should use extra caution since strong winds
and rough waves can overturn small craft.

&&

$$

05

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
107 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.AVIATION...

For the 10/06Z TAFs...Currently VFR conditions at all area
terminals, but expect low cigs to move into the TAF sites, with
reduced flight categories by 10/12Z. VFR cigs look to return by
late morning. Can't rule out some warm air advection showers, but
decided not to include in TAFs, as coverage will be very isolated.
A more active weather setup will take place during the late
evening hours, as a line of storms will approach the region. May
see this activity at TYR by the end of the period. Winds will
increase to between 10-15 kts from the south today, with gusts
approaching 20-25 kts at times. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 948 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021/

UPDATE...

No major updates are needed to the short term forecast at this
time. RAP13 and HRRR continue to project dry conditions through
the overnight hours, with increasing cloud cover over deep east
Texas as we approach daybreak, based on Gulf moisture being
carried on the southerly flow. Winds will increase in speed
through the day Sunday, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible through
the afternoon. Ingested the latest temperature and dewpoint
obs and interpolated through to 10/12Z, when morning lows will
range from the mid to upper 60s across the ArkLaTex before
rebounding into the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday afternoon.

/26/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday/

Bottom line up front: The chance for severe weather looks likely,
especially north of I-30 during the overnight hours of Sunday.
Damaging wind and isolated tornadoes will be the main threat with
this activity.

The first two periods of this short-term will resemble much of
what we've seen the last few days. No real weather to speak of,
with temperatures continuing to run above average. The one notable
change in the weather pattern will be a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of Sunday night's trough. This will allow for some
gusty afternoon winds, and a Lake Wind Advisory will likely be
considered with the next forecast package. Look for afternoon
highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight lows in the
upper 60s and low 70s for tonight.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will ramp up tomorrow night, as
the aforementioned trough and cold front continues to push east.
While the chance for severe weather looks likely, there are still
some questions regarding the extent of storm coverage and
strength. There is quite the discrepancy in guidance when it comes
to overall instability, and just how far north these best values
make it. For the most part, instability values will be tied to the
best surge of Gulf moisture tomorrow afternoon and evening. From
there, values are dependent upon a sustain southerly flow. Based
on some of the latest CAM guidance, the tail end of the cold front
will stall, allowing for it to become elongated, blocking off
further instability advancement. Wind shear values on the other
hand are rather impressive over a good portion of our area, as
the front moves through the region. The kicker here will be
unfavorable zones of forcing, and storms not being able to fully
tap into this shear in the atmosphere. The best chances for
things to all come together are the areas currently highlighted by
the SPC, which are most locations along and north of I-30. Once
again, given impressive wind shear values, the primary threat with
this thunderstorm activity will be damaging winds. However, the
tornado threat can not be discounted either. Hodographs maintain
quite the veering profile, even with storms expected to quickly
take a linear profile. Additionally, 0-1km shear in much of these
areas are 30+ knots during the prime storm timeframe. Once again
mentioning the storm's linear profile, this would mean the
tornado threat would be embedded in the advancing QLCS, going
along side with the wind threat.

Shower and thunderstorms will become sub-severe as the morning
progresses, with lingering thunderstorm chances remaining into the
day on Monday. Behind the front, look for afternoon high
temperatures on Monday to range in the upper 70s to low 80s.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  85  68  88 /  60  30  20  30
MLU  71  86  69  88 /  20  40  20  30
DEQ  63  81  57  83 /  90  20  10  30
TXK  68  83  63  86 /  80  20  20  30
ELD  67  82  62  84 /  50  40  20  30
TYR  66  83  65  87 /  90  20  20  30
GGG  66  84  64  87 /  80  20  20  30
LFK  70  87  70  90 /  70  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

20