Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
216 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tomorrow Night/

At the synoptic level, hardly anything has changed regarding the
overall pattern in the short-term period. Now under greater
influence from the upper-level wind regime, the low pressure is
now moving north/northeast. This process will continue, eventually
speeding up as ridging aloft near NE Mexico provides an extra
boost. As such, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain pretty
steady over the next 36 hours. Most of this activity is diurnally
driven, so rain chances will slightly diminish during the
overnight, but pick right back up into tomorrow. Observed PWAT
values are now starting to push two inches under the stout Gulf
flow, which will help any of these storms to be rather efficient
rain producers. As such, poor drainage areas and the usual problem
spots will be susceptible to flash flooding.

Overnight low temperature will continue to be well below average
under cloud cover and a very wet airmass. Lows both tonight and
tomorrow night will range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Due to
limited sunlight tomorrow, afternoon highs will only get up into
the upper 70s north, and low 80s south.

/44/

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/

As we begin the upcoming work week, unfortunately, the weather
pattern will have changed very little. We are still dealing with a
very wet pattern across the entire Four State Region, due in part to
a stubborn upper level trough parked across N TX. The good news is
that by late Tuesday, the remnants of this trough should begin to
slowly fill and lift out to the north and northeast. This should
limit storm coverage somewhat as we move into the middle part of the
work week and especially by the end of the work week with the aid of
upper level ridging that will try to nudge its way into our region
from the south and west.

By next weekend, there are some indications that ridging will setup
to our north across the Southern Plains with somewhat of a shear
axis south of this feature or across our region. If this were the
case, then we would have to contend with at least scattered
diurnally driven convection even into the upcoming weekend as well
with at least the GFS trying to show something tropical rapidly
moving north and northwest towards the upper Texas Coast.  Lots of
time to watch this pattern play out or not but the 00z run of the
ECMWF, while showing the increasing upper ridging from the southwest
by late week, does not show anything tropical in the Gulf for next
weekend.

What the progs do agree on is an uptick in temperatures for the end
of the work week into next weekend as precipitation coverage
decreases which is to be expected for the second week of June.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/

AVIATION...

Once again, all sites are expected to experience degraded
conditions over the next 24 hours. Skies will hold predominantly
MVFR, with drops into IFR/LIFR visibility during precipitation
not out of the question. Cloud cover will expand during the
overnight hours into mostly IFR category, before precipitation
picks back up tomorrow.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  84  71  84 /  60  70  40  80
MLU  70  84  72  84 /  60  70  50  80
DEQ  68  81  68  80 /  70  80  60  90
TXK  70  82  70  82 /  60  70  60  90
ELD  68  82  69  83 /  60  50  60  80
TYR  69  84  72  83 /  60  50  40  60
GGG  68  83  71  82 /  60  70  50  70
LFK  69  85  72  84 /  60  70  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

13/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
314 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-060815-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
314 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire
region today, and localized heavy downpours will be possible.
However, no widespread organized hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Heavy rain late in the weekend into early next week may lead to
localized flash flooding concerns across some areas. Otherwise,
the risk of severe storms will generally remain low through this
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed.

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