Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
611 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Main concern will be storms/severe weather chances tonight.

A strong shortwave that now extends form the Dakotas to the
central/eastern Rockies will moves slowly east and support a
strong cold frontal passage for our area tonight. While overall
better shear/lift will be to the north, instability farther south
will be present with some increase in lift this evening as 5H
height falls move into the region. Expect to see convection
develop northeast to southwest along the front this evening after
00z/7pm as it moves into far southeast Kansas and west
central/southwest MO.

With good surface heating ahead of the front this afternoon,
guidance soundings indicate good low level lapse rates/deep
mixing in the 0-3km layer into the early evening hours. Some dry
air aloft will mix down and this may also help limit initial
development. However, consensus guidance does produce mlcapes
1000-1500 j/kg just ahead of the front with 0-6km bulk shear of
30-35kts over the northern cwfa and about 20-25kts over far southern
MO. Linear storm organization, especially over our west central-
central MO counties, support and severe wind risk and maybe hail
with stronger updrafts.

The loss of daytime sfc heating by late evening should help limit
the severe risk after midnight as convection continues to move
east-southeast into south central MO. Rainfall is needed with
recent dry conditions, so we don't expect much of a excessive
rain/flooding risk.

Much cooler fall-like weather is expected Tuesday with some
lingering showers over southern MO, especially in the morning.
Clouds should gradually clear from west to east during the day,
but linger over our eastern counties for much of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Wednesday-Thursday: The upper trough will move through early
Wednesday and develop a cutoff low over MI/OH Wednesday night
while an upper ridge moves into western Plains. Sfc high pressure
will shift into the eastern KS/MO late Wednesday- Wednesday night
with dry weather. With the sfc ridge axis right over the area by
daybreak Thursday, we should see very cool temperatures with lows
in the 40s with some readings near 40 possible over our eastern
counties.

Friday-Weekend: With the early week front moving all the way to
the Gulf coast, moisture will be lacking. Another front will move
through the region late Friday-Friday night as a shortwave moves
southeast through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This next
front should move through dry and have only a limited affect on
temperatures. We should see a warming trend over the weekend with
low daytime humidity as sfc high pressure shifts east of the area
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

For the 00z TAFS, cold front was pushing into eastern Kansas and
northwest MO as of 23z. Convection was developing along this
frontal boundary from northeast to southwest. As the front moves
southeast, additional development is expected further south along
the front and should impact all 3 TAF sites from mid to late
evening and into part of the overnight hours. Winds will switch to
the northwest then north behind the front and will eventually
become gusty during the daytime on Tuesday. Should maintain VFR
conditions ahead of the convection, but once convection begins,
expect a predominant MVFR with some brief IFR. Convection at JLN
between 02z-07z, SGF between 03z and 08z and BBG between 05z and
12z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

KSZ073-MOZ066-210015-
Bourbon KS-Vernon MO-
652 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Bourbon
and northwestern Vernon Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 651 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fulton, or 11 miles south of Mound City, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Scott...                     Fulton...
Redfield...                       Richards...
Mapleton...                       Metz...
Stotesbury...                     Hammond...
Devon...                          Harding...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3803 9488 3804 9477 3804 9461 3805 9461
      3806 9449 3805 9448 3806 9442 3785 9446
      3783 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 262DEG 25KT 3798 9478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Runnels