Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
258 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Extent of thunderstorms through tonight to be the main forecast
challenge.

Mid afternoon surface pattern depicts the cold front along I-70 has
moved little today and a new feature in an inverted trough extending
from a low over central Oklahoma into the Joplin area. The boundary
that led to scattered storms over south central MO this morning
has descended into northern Arkansas.

In the short term...the inverted trough will provide the best focus
for thunderstorm development across far southeast Kansas into
southwest Missouri this afternoon but isolated convection will be
possible elsewhere. Coverage will then likely increase over
southern Missouri this evening as the inverted trough eases more
eastward in orientation as the cold front finally reaches the
area. MLCAPES have been impacted by clouds and outflow...though
MUCAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG will lead to elevated storms with some
stronger updrafts leading to locally heavy downpours as the main
threat.

Better storm chances will then be over southern Missouri into
Arkansas tonight in association with the slow moving cold front.
What is more significant is that drier dew points will surge into
the region on Saturday...resulting in heat indices toping out in
the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Temperatures look to remain mild through midweek as upper heights
drop with the arrival of a series of weak shortwaves that top the
western trough and migrate across the Plains...followed by a digging
shortwave over the Rockies that will further flatten the ridge that
has brought the prolonged heat to the west.  The result will not
only impact temperatures but also provide for daily low end rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

VFR conditions expected for much of the forecast period though
thunderstorms are expected over the forecast area. Greater
likelihood this afternoon will be closer to KBBG in association
with a surface boundary along the Missouri Arkansas
border...though isolated storms will be possible elsewhere this
afternoon.

Additional isolated to widely scattered convection is expected to
develop later this evening into early Saturday morning as well.
Southern Missouri will again see the greater coverage though
storms will again be possible elsewhere.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
157 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
157 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and storms will redevelop this afternoon into
tonight...then increase in coverage again later tonight.

Lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be the main threats
however a few strong storms with gusty winds are possible late
this afternoon and evening, mainly south of Interstate 44.
Widespread severe weather is not expected.

Heat index values of 95 to 100 will occur south of Interstate 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Low chances for thunderstorms exist on a daily basis through next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Runnels

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
644 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

MOZ104-140015-
Taney MO-
644 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Taney
County through 715 PM CDT...

At 644 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hollister, or near Branson, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Branson...                        Lake Taneycomo...
Table Rock State Park...          Bull Shoals Lake...
Table Rock Lake...                Hollister...
Table Rock...                     Kirbyville...
Protem...                         Rueter...
Ridgedale...                      Powersite...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 9329 3665 9277 3650 9278 3650 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 275DEG 8KT 3657 9321

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lindenberg