Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
546 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday)

Convection expanded into extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks overnight as a stationary front was positioned near the
region. This feature will continue to be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms today through Saturday.

A Flood Watch has been posted beginning at noon today. Some of the
high resolution models were signaling training convection as early
as this afternoon. Therefore we started the watch a bit early for
that reason.

Cloud cover and rain will limit temperatures in the middle 50s
across west central and central Missouri today. Upper 60s to
lower 70s expected in south central Missouri, an area that is
south of the front and could receive some sunshine this morning.

Convection will eventually pass through the entire region prior to
a small break this evening.

Convergence will increase along the frontal zone tonight, causing
showers and thunderstorms to once again expand across the region
in widespread fashion. This activity will persist into Friday and
Saturday. With the lack of vegetation, runoff will lead to flooded
low water crossings.

Shortwave ridging ahead of a large upper level low pressure system
will bring an end to this first round of rainfall Saturday
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

A 2nd round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive
across the Ozarks by Sunday morning, bringing another soaker and
likely flooding. It's possible that the Flood Watch will have to
be expanded into Sunday and Sunday night.

Despite loads of wind shear present to organize storms, there
doesn't appear to be much instability. Therefore any risk for
severe weather seems very marginal at this time, with the main
risk associated with flooding.

Rain will end west to east Sunday evening, with a small window of
dry weather expected Monday morning. Some chilly rain associated
with the passing of the upper cold core is likely on Monday
afternoon and evening. This precipitation is not expected to be
heavy on Monday afternoon and evening.

There are some signals for an additional storm complex to impact
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor radar trends over the next 24 hours. Pilots will
also need to monitor for low flight conditions due to a frontal
system positioned across the Ozarks.

This front will be a focus for rain development along with low
ceilings.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch from noon CST today through Saturday afternoon for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flood Watch from noon CST today through Saturday afternoon for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
512 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
512 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will be common across the region today.
Some training of rainfall could lead to some flooding of small
streams and creeks, particularly where they cross low water
crossings. There is a limited risk for organized thunderstorms
today and tonight. A strong storm or two could produce wind gusts
in excess of 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along and north
of a stationary frontal system on Friday into Saturday. Flooding
will be the primary risk with this activity. There is a limited
risk for a strong thunderstorm or two.

Additional thunderstorms are likely on Saturday through Saturday
evening. This round of thunderstorms will be widespread, and pose
an additional flooding risk. Storm total precipitation through
Sunday evening will range from three to six inches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
854 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

MOZ089-111545-
Dade MO-
854 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTY UNTIL
945 AM CST...

At 853 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lockwood, or 7 miles southwest of Greenfield, moving east at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton Lake...                  Greenfield...
Lockwood...                       Everton...
Dadeville...                      South Greenfield...
Pennsboro...                      Meinert...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 9406 3740 9407 3756 9362 3731 9363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1453Z 249DEG 47KT 3735 9394

Wise