Dense Fog Advisory 7, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1136 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday)

The synoptic pattern is in great shape for excessive rainfall
across extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. A deep
trough is present over the western United States. A positive
tilted structure to this upper low allowed a sub-tropical plume of
moisture to flow directly over the Ozarks. Meanwhile low level
moisture transport was beginning to co-locate underneath the sub-
tropical plume aloft. This will begin to enhance rainfall rates
across southern Missouri today through Sunday.

Convection is expected to increase in areal coverage across the
region today. Locations that experienced decent rainfall yesterday
will need to be monitored closely for flash flooding as some areas
have saturated soil conditions and elevated streamflows.

Deep moisture will find large amounts of isentropic pressure
advection lift tonight across a widespread area of southern
Missouri and southeast Kansas. Significant flash flooding is
becoming a possibility, and we will upgrade the Hazardous Weather
Outlook to include a significant risk for flash flooding. Our
current regime fits the "Maddox Synoptic Pattern" for flooding
quite well.

Warm advection convection should begin to subside Saturday
afternoon and evening, providing a small break before another
round of showers and thunderstorms approach from the west during
the day on Sunday. This round of rainfall will also be widespread.

Storm total rainfall amounts will range from two to four inches
with localized higher amounts.

The Flood Watch will continue through Saturday and be re-evaluated
at that time for a possible expansion into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Some additional rain showers will be possible on Monday as the
upper level cold core tracks over the region. This rainfall will
be much lighter, and cover less area. Eventually we completely dry
up by Monday evening as the system progresses east of the region.

After a dry and mild day on Tuesday, another system approaches and
brings us another round of rain showers on Wednesday into
Thursday. Given wet antecedent conditions along with elevated
streamflows, we could experience more flooding with this mid week
system.

Zonal flow evolves toward the end of the forecast period with Gulf
moisture returning next weekend. This will likely set the stage
for more rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Cloud cover will remain across the region over the next 24 hours
as multiple rounds of rain impact the area. Ceilings will remain
IFR with occasional LIFR possible where heavy rain and
thunderstorms impact area terminals. Where rain does occur
visibilities will be impacted with IFR and LIFR conditions
probable.

A short break in the rain may occur Saturday afternoon and evening
before a cold front makes its way through the region Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
358 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
358 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through today and tonight.
Flooding and flash flooding is expected as rainfall rates begin
to increase. Localized significant flash flooding can not be
ruled out in localized areas where training thunderstorms occur.

Some of the more robust thunderstorms today and tonight could
produce small hail and wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Widespread
or significant severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday morning and
continue into the afternoon. Eventually this activity will exit
the Ozarks region by Saturday evening.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will occur Sunday. This
activity will be widespread in nature, and carry a risk for
additional flooding. No severe weather is expected on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1039 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLOOD            2 W FAIR GROVE          37.39N 93.18W
03/12/2021                   GREENE             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY CC IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            AT THE LITTLE POMME DE TERRE RIVER WEST OF
            FAIR GROVE.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1208 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLOOD            SLIGO                   37.78N 91.37W
03/12/2021                   DENT               MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY TT IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            AT CROOKED CREEK.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
119 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLOOD            6 SE SLEEPER            37.69N 92.53W
03/12/2021                   LACLEDE            MO   PUBLIC

            WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD (UNKNOWN
            DEPTH) ON GRINDSTONE ROAD AT MILL CREEK.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
120 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

KSZ097-121945-
Crawford KS-
120 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 145
PM CST...

At 120 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Erie, moving east at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg...                      Frontenac...
Girard...                         Arma...
Franklin...                       Walnut...
Hepler...                         Beulah...
Greenbush...                      Ringo...
Lone Oak...                       Farlington...
Brazilton...                      Polk...
Englevale...

LAT...LON 3766 9509 3768 9489 3767 9470 3742 9470
      3744 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 269DEG 46KT 3755 9530

Terry

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