Areal Flood Warning 64, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
633 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

It was a stormy night for some locations across extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Showers and thunderstorms lingered
along a weak surface boundary, underneath southwesterly flow
aloft. High precipitable water values led to efficient rainfall
rates, as flooding continued in areas of Newton County, an area
that has been hit two nights in a row.

For today, look for continued showers and thunderstorms along the
frontal boundary. The areal coverage of this activity may shrink a
little as the low level jet begins to wane. Rainfall rates could
lead to localized areas of flash flooding, therefore the Flash
Flood Watch will be allowed to continue through late this morning.

Temperatures today will range from the low 80s out west, to the
upper 80s in the eastern Ozarks.

For tonight, another round of showers and thunderstorms will
develop, possibly impacting the same areas that received rain the
previous two nights. A flood risk will persist, especially in
locations that experience repeated thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We have rain chances in every period through the middle of the
upcoming work week. Temperatures will be cooler with highs
generally in the low 80s on a daily basis.

A broad trough of upper level low pressure will retrograde back
to the west, allowing for rising mid level heights to return from
the east. Weak southwest flow and continued Gulf moisture
transport will accommodate additional rain throughout the next
few days.

We get back into a weak northwest flow regime by late in the week
as a strong closed off upper level low pressure system develops
over the Great Lakes Region. This low seems strong for the time of
year, and I think models will adjust this with time. Therefore the
forecast late in the upcoming week has some uncertainty with it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor radar trends over the next 24 hours. Any
convection that directly impacts an airfield will have a shot at
lowering flight conditions.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms were ongoing this morning
across the region, and will likely linger in the area throughout
the day.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected when precipitation is not
present.

Look for winds to be light and variable throughout the day and
night.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
330 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-280830-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
330 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will linger through today and tonight.
There is a limited risk for a strong storm or two this afternoon
into tonight, with strong thunderstorm wind gusts being the
primary risk.

While many areas will see little to no rain, the areas in which
storms develop will see heavy downpours. High hourly rainfall
rates combined with repeated rainfall over the same areas could
result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW NEOSHO            36.87N 94.38W
06/27/2021                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODING ON
            SPRING AND MCCORD STREET.

&&

CRAMER