Areal Flood Warning 61, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across portions of the
Ozarks region this morning. Most of the activity is along and
north of the Interstate 44 corridor. This activity is focused
along a stationary boundary that extends across the area. Areas
south of this stationary boundary (primarily south of the
Interstate 44 corridor) have remained rather dry. Meanwhile, flash
flooding remains a concern north of this boundary where 1 to 4
inches, with localized heavier amounts have fallen since Friday
evening. This area will remain a focus for additional flash
flooding potential through today and tonight as repeated rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through this area.
An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible today,
though the threat remains relatively low. The area of highest
flooding potential will exist across southeast Kansas into west
central and central Missouri. As for temperatures, expect highs in
the lower 80s north of the stalled boundary, and middle 80s south
of the boundary.

While some dry time will be found across the Ozarks today, the
main focus remains on additional flooding through tonight. The
current Flash Flood Watch has been extended in time through Sunday
morning as additional flooding concerns continue today. The watch
area aligns fairly well with WPC's moderate excessive rainfall
outlook for today and tonight. Current expectations are for
additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and train over the
same areas in the watch this afternoon into tonight. The
environment is supportive of flash flooding with modest
instability and high moisture content. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3
inches per a hour will be common. Short term model guidance
suggest an additional 1 to 3 inches across the watch area will be
likely through Sunday morning, with localized heavier amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

By Sunday, portions of the region will be primed for additional
flooding as another wet day is in the forecast. The expectation is
for daily showers and thunderstorms to continue Sunday and into
the middle of next week as model guidance suggests little change
in the pattern. The prolonged nature of rainfall through the
middle of next week leads to a growing concern for river flooding
and higher lake levels.

Meanwhile, cloud cover and associated precipitation will keep
temperatures below normal through next week with highs generally
in the lower 80s, with a few days of upper 70s not out of the
realm.

By late next week, some model guidance hints at a shift in the
upper level pattern. This could bring us a bit of a relief from an
active pattern. However, there still remains model discrepancies
at this time. Check back for more information over the coming days
as we get a better handle on the holiday weekend forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region through
the TAF period. In the heavier showers and thunderstorms, MVFR to
IFR conditions will be found as a result of low ceilings and
visibilities. There will be periods of dry time throughout today
and tonight, in which VFR conditions will be found. Meanwhile,
winds will be out of the south/southwest through the TAF period.
Winds will gust up to 20 knots this afternoon at KSGF and KJLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>069-
     077>080-088>090-093-094.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
636 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
636 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across portions of the
region today and tonight. Excessive rainfall and flooding will be
the primary hazards. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm
will be possible this afternoon.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts are
expected within the Flash Flood Watch area through tonight. High
hourly rainfall rates combined with repeated rainfall over the
same areas could result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday. This
will result in a continued excessive rainfall and flood potential.
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Perez

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