Areal Flood Warning 59, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

A large area of light to moderate rainfall remains over the area
early this morning as moisture is being pulled northward of a
surface low over northeast Texas, aided by a low level jet to our
southwest. The heaviest rainfall extends roughly along a Neosho to
Republic line near an elevated front around 850 mb.

As the surface low tracks northeastward into Arkansas today, we
will continue to see rain persist across much of the area through
the day. Instability still looks pretty low, so do not expect
severe storms, but could see a few embedded thunderstorms over our
southern counties through tonight.

Will not see much variation in temperatures today with rain and
clouds around. Most areas will remain in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

Chances for showers and a few storms will linger into Wednesday
as the surface low moves into the MO Bootheel and an upper trough
shifts southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest.
As these features move east of the area on Thursday, rain chances
will gradually decrease from west to east.

A more typical summer pattern sets up over the region by Friday
and into the weekend as the main branch of the westerlies shifts
northward into the northern tier of states. However we are still
seeing a weak upper level cutoff low developing over the southern
Plains. This will interact with a persistent fetch of moisture off
the Gulf to keep intermittent chances for showers and storms in
the forecast through early next week. Expect mainly scattered
storms with best chances in the afternoon.

Overall increasing heights over the region will help warm
afternoon temperatures back into the 80s late this week into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

Showers with continue to move through the region today. A few
thunderstorms will be possible. Expect MVFR to IFR flight
conditions through tonight as a result of reduced visibilities
and ceilings. Ceilings will remain overcast at around 3000 feet or
less through this evening, especially in heavier showers where
IFR ceilings will occur. Additionally, visibilities will be
reduced to as low as 2 to 4 mile in the heavier showers. The
lowest ceilings and visibilities are expected at KBBG through
today. Meanwhile, surface winds will remain light at 5 to 10 knots
from the east/southeast through this evening.

For tonight, expect a break in widespread activity with the bulk
of the precipitation shield sliding to the east. However,
lingeringlight rain/drizzle will continue into tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

Will keep the flood watch going over our southern counties today
as saturated soils combined with persistent moderate to heavy rain
may lead to some flooding potential.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ095>098-103>106.

     Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ093-101-102.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Perez
HYDROLOGY...Terry

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
417 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
417 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move across
the region today. No severe weather is expected. Heavier showers
are expected over far southern Missouri where some flooding will
be possible, mainly along and south of a Neosho to West Plains to
Eminence line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue at times
through Monday, but coverage and duration of the storms and
overall rainfall amounts are expected to be limited.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Terry