Areal Flood Warning 33, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
601 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021

Heavy rainfall has exited to the east of the region this morning.
Areas of patchy dense fog will persistent through the early
morning hours across portions of southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri before dissipating after sunrise.

For today, expect clouds to clear the region through the morning
into the early afternoon. As this happens,an occluded front will
progress northward across central Missouri allowing warm air to
push into the region. Expect highs this afternoon in the middle
60s to near 70. The frontal boundary will play a key role in a
potential localized severe threat across central Missouri this
afternoon. A modest severe environment is being portrayed in the
short-term guidance. Modest amounts of instability (500-750
J/kg), adequate bulk shear (30-35 knots), and low-level moisture
could trigger  a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop
this afternoon. CAMs are coming into agreement that a few low-
topped storms will develop along the boundary this afternoon,
generally along and north of line from Osceola to Rolla and move
northeast with time. A few of these thunderstorms could
potentially take on mini supercell structures. Given this setup, a
few strong to severe thunderstorms will be advertised for this
afternoon with hail being the primary risk in addition to a
conditional brief tornado threat. The brief tornado threat will
rely heavily on if any thunderstorms are able to become surface-
based. Nonetheless, strong low-level shear and winds potentially
backed out of the southeast along the boundary will aid in a brief
tornado potential. This is further supported by 00Z HREF updraft
helicity. Subsequent forecast updates may be needed to further
address this localized severe potential later this morning.

For tonight, overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021

For Tuesday, another warm day is in the forecast with highs in the
60s to lower 70s across southern Missouri. The next system takes
aim at the central CONUS late Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
system will bring additional rainfall to the region as well an
associated severe weather threat. Current model guidance suggest
the the ingredients will be in place for severe potential. There
is a few remaining uncertainties that could hinder the severe
potential, including track of the surface low, timing of
thunderstorms, and instability. Nonetheless, there does appear to
be a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This is consistent with SPCs Severe Weather Outlooks on
Tuesday Night and Wednesday with a slight risk being advertised
as the system slides through the region. More details will be
addressed in future forecasts. This system will exit the region
overnight Wednesday.

By Thursday, much cooler air will filter into the region with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A drier period is forecast
for late in the week into the weekend, with temperatures returning
to normal with highs in the lower 60s on Saturday. An active
pattern looks to return by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021

Dense fog will continue to impact KBBG this morning before
dissipating after sunrise. Additionally, KSGF is tucked in with a
thin low stratus deck that is expected to dissipate later this
morning as well. IFR to LIFR flight conditions can be expected
early in the TAF period at KBBG and KSGF before turning MVFR to
VFR late this morning. Meanwhile, KJLN will remain VFR this
morning.

By late this morning into the early afternoon skies will clear
giving way to sunshine and VFR flight conditions. South/southwest
surface winds will gust at 20 to 25 knots this afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across central
Missouri this afternoon, but will not impact the TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
619 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Limited fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

Patchy areas of dense fog across southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri this morning. Fog will dissipate later this morning.

Expect residual flooding to continue across the area this morning.

South southwest winds will gust at 25 to 30 mph today across
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
into the early evening across central Missouri. The primary hazard
will be quarter size hail and lightning. A brief tornado or
isolated damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the middle
of the week. There is the potential for some thunderstorms to be
strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Perez