Special Weather Statement, NWS Seattle, WA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
910 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A strong front moved through Western Washington around
daybreak. Strong onshore flow today will keep the weather showery
and blustery. Minor tidal overflow flooding is possible near the
beaches during the high tide this morning across the inland
waters. High snow levels with an atmospheric river will bring
heavy rain to the mountains later in the week with a chance of
river flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...The highest pressure rises
were centered over northwest WA at 8am and gradients were backing
off over the past couple hours. There are bands of showers nearing
the coast however, so it should still be plenty blustery today and
we might see a few squalls and thunderstorms. Snow is falling in the
mountains, and high tide this morning will be up to a foot above the
tide table predictions so minor tidal overflow flooding is possible.

The next front will arrive Wednesday night, but it is not til
Thursday that the heavier rain develops--the 12z GFS focuses the
heavier rain at first over the northern Oregon coast and southwest
WA Thursday afternoon but as we head into Thursday night the precip
fills in over the rest of Western Washington and the Cascades and we
have a flood potential outlook up for now for later in the week as
the atmospheric river weather pattern sets up. 19

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...By late Thursday an atmospheric
river event is expected to begin. This event will bring widespread
heavy rainfall. Snow levels will also be increasing to above 9000
feet, this coupled with heavy rains and melting snow will cause
rivers area wide to rise dramatically though Friday. We could
see a brief break by Saturday but confidence is low. More frontal
systems are in our future for Sunday and Monday. Butwin

&&

.AVIATION...Current conditions are primarily VFR for most TAF
sites in the wake of the frontal passage this morning. Conditions
look to remain steady through the morning, with the potential for
some temporary vsby reductions within pockets of heavier rain in
scattered showers. Southerly winds will remain breezy most of the
day, likely peaking this morning with sustained winds of 20-25kts
with gusts 30-40kts possible, easing to 15-20kts with gusts
20-30kts through the afternoon. Given gusty/strong near- surface
winds, not expecting impacts with LLWS but will continue to
monitor through the day. Aviation interests should be aware of
strong winds just above the surface. Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible for terminals along the coast today-so could briefly
see vsbys and cigs drop to MVFR/IFR should any storms that do
develop track in the vicinity of a terminal.

KSEA...VFR with the potential for brief periods of MVFR cigs and
vsbys within heavier pockets of rain today. Rain will become more
showery this afternoon. Gusty south winds around 10-20kts this
morning with gusts to 30 kts possible at times. Sustained winds
to around 15kts expected in the afternoon and evening with gusts
continuing around 20-25kts. Winds should then relax this evening.

Kovacik/Borth

&&

.MARINE...A vigorous frontal system traversed the area earlier this
morning. It is associated with a deep upper level parent low still
centered just to the west of Haida Gwaii. Strong winds, rough
seas, and periods of brief heavy rain in scattered showers will
continue to affect area waters through much of today.

The strongest winds this morning occurred in the vicinity of the
frontal passage, however expect winds to remain within gale
thresholds for most waters through much of the day in its wake.
Winds will gradually subside late this evening and into the
overnight period into Wednesday. W/NW swells are likely to hover
in the 10-14ft range today and persist into Wednesday. An SCA for
rough bar will remain in effect today around Grays Harbor and
will need to be extended with future updates.

Unsettled weather will then continue through the rest of the week.
The brunt of this forecast update focused on the near term and short
term, but it appears likely that strong easterly winds will affect
the Strait on Thursday ahead of an atmospheric river event. Winds
also look elevated over the coastal waters. Additional headlines
will likely be needed to cover this event and details will be fine
tuned after today's event. Kovacik/Borth

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flood warning is up for the Skokomish river because
the river has begun to rise from today's rainfall. The river is
expected to recede below flood stage by Wednesday and will likely
go above flood again late Thursday or Friday.

A hydrologic outlook was issued for most of Western Washington for
Thursday night through Saturday. A warm front will move through
the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but then a heavier
round of rain, probably 3-5" of rain, is likely to fall in the
mountains Thursday night and Friday. The 850mb temp will be around
+6c with the snow level obviously well above all the passes
Thursday night and Friday. Felton/Butwin

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Bellevue and
     Vicinity-Everett and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Tacoma
     Area.

     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Cascades
     of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King
     Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Olympics.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST today for Admiralty Inlet
     Area-Bremerton and Vicinity-Everett and Vicinity-San Juan
     County-Seattle and Vicinity-Western Skagit County-Western
     Whatcom County.

     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Admiralty
     Inlet Area-Central Coast-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-
     North Coast-San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western
     Whatcom County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for East Puget Sound
     Lowlands.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Grays
     Harbor Bar.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet-
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
     Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1115 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

WAZ512-513-517-092000-
Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Olympics-Central Coast-
1115 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Grays
Harbor County through NOON PST...

At 1115 AM PST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Copalis Beach, or 8 miles east of Moclips, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlisle and Humptulips.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4709 12407 4722 12416 4751 12351 4725 12351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 237DEG 34KT 4719 12402

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PULLIN