River Flood Warning 99, NWS Seattle, WA

354 
WGUS86 KSEW 112104
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
104 PM PST Sat Dec 11 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River At Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Heavy rain overnight caused the Skokomish River to rise above flood 
stage this morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this evening at 900 PM PST.

&&


WAC045-120515-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0099.000000T0000Z-211213T0519Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.211211T1600Z.211212T0000Z.211212T2018Z.NO/
104 PM PST Sat Dec 11 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skokomish River At Potlatch.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 17.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause moderate 
  flooding, with deep and quick flood waters inundating some 
  residential areas, many roads, and much of the farm land in the 
  Skokomish Valley. Inundated roads include the Skokomish Valley 
  road, Bourgault Road West, Purdy Cutoff Road, and Highway 106.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:00 PM PST Saturday the river was cresting just above
    17.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is cresting early this afternoon and
    will recede through this evening, likely dropping below flood
    stage overnight.
  - Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    17.6 feet on 10/20/2003.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308
      4721 12321 4738 12340


$$

19

723 
WGUS86 KSEW 120444
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
844 PM PST Sat Dec 11 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River At Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.The river will recede tonight and fall below flood stage Sunday 
morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by late tonight at 445 AM PST.

&&


WAC045-121245-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0099.000000T0000Z-211212T2012Z/
/SRPW1.1.ER.211211T1600Z.211211T2215Z.211212T1112Z.NO/
844 PM PST Sat Dec 11 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skokomish River At Potlatch.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 16.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands, with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM PST Saturday the stage was 17.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:15 PM PST Saturday was 17.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tonight and continue falling to 15.9 feet Monday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    17.2 feet on 12/17/2001.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308
      4721 12321 4738 12340


$$

16

844 
WGUS86 KSEW 121229
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
429 AM PST Sun Dec 12 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River At Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.The Skokomish River continues to gradually fall today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 1215 PM PST.

&&


WAC045-122015-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0099.000000T0000Z-211212T2012Z/
/SRPW1.1.ER.211211T1600Z.211211T2215Z.211212T1359Z.NO/
429 AM PST Sun Dec 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 
THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Skokomish River At Potlatch.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 16.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands, with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 AM PST Sunday the stage was 16.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:00 AM PST Sunday was 17.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to continue gradually
    falling today, dropping below flood stage late this morning.
  - Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    16.7 feet on 01/04/2003.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308
      4721 12321 4738 12340


$$

12

518 
WGUS86 KSEW 121914
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1114 AM PST Sun Dec 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River At Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.The Skokomish River is below flood stage and will continue to 
gradually fall today.

WAC045-122015-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0099.000000T0000Z-211212T1914Z/
/SRPW1.1.ER.211211T1600Z.211211T2215Z.211212T1359Z.NO/
1114 AM PST Sun Dec 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Skokomish River At Potlatch.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 AM PST Sunday the river was below flood stage at
    Potlatch at 16.3 feet and falling.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:00 AM PST Sunday was 17.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to continue to fall.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308
      4721 12321 4738 12340


$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
340 AM PST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Strong frontal system remains across the region this
morning with gusty winds and heavy mountain snow and lowland rain
continuing this morning. A cool upper level trough will remain
over the region through much of the next week, maintaining widespread
showers and low snow levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Heavy precipitation and
strong winds continue across much of Western Washington as a
strong frontal system remains stretched across the region. Already
in the last 12 or so hours, about a foot of snow already measured
at Hurricane Ridge and Stevens Pass, with even more up around
Mount Baker. Meanwhile, the lower elevations of the Olympics and
areas near the northern coast have picked up on the order of
1.5-3 inches of rain over the last 12 hours. This has resulted in
some sharp rises on rivers in these areas - see the hydrology
section for more details.

In addition to the precipitation, the other big story this morning
has been the strong winds. As expected, locations along the
Pacific coast and portions of the northern interior closest to the
water have seen the strongest gusts with a peak wind of 58 mph at
Bellingham airport, 57 at Port Townsend, and many locations along
the coastline into the 50-55 mph range. Closer to the Seattle
area, Paine Field in Everett recorded a peak wind of 46 mph, as
did Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, while Sea-Tac airport
reached 44 mph. All of these winds are as of 3 AM this morning,
with a few more hours of advisory strength gusts possible across
the interior through mid-morning ahead of the approaching cold
front. The wind will then ease, but breezy conditions can be
expected through much of the day. Expect a total of 1.5-3 feet of
snow across the Cascades and Olympics, with the winter storm
warning remaining in effect through early Sunday morning.

Continued showers are expected into Sunday and Monday with onshore
flow continuing to provide enhancement in the shower activity over
the mountains. Have maintained a mention of the potential for
thunderstorms over the waters and near the coast late Saturday and
also Sunday, with the best chances Sunday afternoon with the
arrival of a passing shortwave. With ensemble guidance remaining
in strong agreement that the upper trough will remain just
offshore Monday and into early Tuesday, this will maintain a cool
and cloudy trend with ongoing showers.  Cullen

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Not much change to the
overall pattern into Tuesday with the ensembles continuing to
maintain an upper trough off the Pacific coast into Tuesday. This
will again maintain showers and cooler temperatures - and lower
snow levels - through the early part of next week. With some
indication of developing offshore flow, and the trough finally
pushing south and east across the region, expect another round of
increased precipitation late Tuesday into Wednesday. Depending on
the timing of this trough, there will remain some potential for
snow or rain/snow mix across portions of the lowlands at times.
Needless to say, certainty in the details of timing and amount of
any potential lowland snow remains low, but the most likely
scenario would be for some light snow at times during the
overnight hours during the first portion of the long term period.

For the second half of next week, ensembles support a shift more
of a ridge Thursday and perhaps into Friday, though it may remain
weak enough to maintain at least some potential for the next round
of precipitation to enter Western Washington so still some mention
of rain/mountain snow chances in the forecast. PoPs then increase
again late Friday into next Saturday as another disturbance
reaches the region.     Cullen

&&

.AVIATION...Vigorous frontal system moving through Western
Washington this morning with strong west-southwest flow aloft.
The air mass is moist and will become somewhat unstable in the post-
frontal air mass. Widespread MVFR ceilings in rain this morning are
expected to lift to VFR at times mid-afternoon through early evening
as precipitation becomes showery. Areas of MVFR in showers continue
into tonight as an upper trough moves across the region. Strong
southerly surface winds will ease this afternoon.

KSEA...MVFR in rain continuing through the morning. A mix of MVFR
and VFR in scattered showers expected mid afternoon into this
evening. Surface wind southerly 20-30 gusting 35 knots becoming
southwest generally 10-20 knots midday. 27

&&

.MARINE...A vigorous frontal system will move through the area
this morning with full southerly gales. Periods of blustery winds
will occur over the weekend as somewhat organized bands of showers
move through but by late in the weekend gradients will become fairly
light as a large low pressure trough along the West Coast weakens
into early next week. Seas will build to 14 to 18 feet over the
weekend then subside again early next week. 19/27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Two to four inches of precipitation over the mountains
tonight through Sunday morning will allow area rivers to rise,
with particular attention on the Skokomish River in Mason County,
as well as rivers across portions of Grays Harbor, Thurston, and
Lewis counties. Snow levels remain around 3,500 ft, which should
preclude more widespread river flooding with this event.
Nevertheless, expect sufficient precipitation to bring the
Skokomish to flood stage later this morning and the Newaukum near
Chehalis this afternoon. While additional rises are expected on
the lower reaches of several other rivers, no other river
flooding is expected outside of these areas, nor is additional
river flooding expected through the next seven days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Bellevue and
     Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-East Puget Sound Lowlands-
     Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley
     Area-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area.

     Flood Watch through this evening for Cascades of Pierce and
     Lewis Counties-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
     Olympics-Southwest Interior.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Cascades of
     Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King
     Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Olympics.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning for
     Admiralty Inlet Area-Central Coast-North Coast-San Juan
     County-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor Bar.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Central U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
     Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Sunday
     for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The
     San Juan Islands.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for Admiralty Inlet-
     Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Sunday
     for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for Puget Sound and
     Hood Canal.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle